Huge Pot

Hints:
UTG = Under the Gun = first person to act after the blinds
UTGB= Under the Gun B = 2nd person to act after the blinds
MP = Middle Position
Button = last person to act on all betting rounds

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop:
UTG raises, UTGB 3-bets, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button caps, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTGB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.


Flop:
21.50 SB = $215 in the pot. 5 players for 4 bets each.

8♦, 3♥, 2♣

UTG checks, UTGB checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Button bets, UTG calls, UTGB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.


Turn:
13.25 BB = $265 in the pot. 5 players still in.

2♠

UTG bets, UTGB raises, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, Button folds, UTG calls.

River:
19.25 BB = $385 in the pot. 3 players still in.

K♦

UTG checks, UTGB bets, MP1 calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB = $425



Results and commentary in white below (highlight to read):

UTGB has Ah As (two pair, aces and twos).

MP1 has 7c 7s (two pair, sevens and twos).

Outcome: UTGB wins 21.25 BB.

I had the Aces. After 5 people see a capped flop, my priority is maximizing my chance to win the pot, as opposed to maximizing the size of the pot. I didn't raise the flop because it would have still been right for almost any hand to call me. Nobody would have folded and everyone would have odds to call if I bet the turn. By not raising, I induced UTG to bet out on the turn, giving me the chance to raise it to $40 and force 2 people out, and forcing the guy with 77 to make an incorrect call.

This was the biggest pot I've won in a long time.

Its been a long day

I've written before about how I got to be playing the Party Poker $3/6 hold'em game. The key point is that over a couple months I averaged $90/hour of winnings by playing 4 tables at once in that game. While I knew that my "true" winrate over a larger number of hands wouldn't end up that high, I still fancied myself quite a success in that game.

When I found myself playing poker full time, I figured I'd start with that game as my bread-and-butter and go from there. I started to get frustrated with that game, made fun of my opponents, wallowed in some introspection, and eventually decided to try $5/10 instead.

So that gets us to yesterday. If you asked me 2 days ago, I'd tell you my main game was playing 4 tables of Party $5/10 full-handed tables. But after losing 73 big bets ($726.50) in 2 hours late Thursday/early Friday, I started to wonder if that was really my best choice of game. I've played almost 30,000 hands, and I'm winning a mere 0.37BB/100 hands, which translates to less than $10 per hour. That's no way to pay my bills while building a bankroll. So something has to change. What should I change?

Here are the variables: hold'em, cash game, limit, $5/10, full-handed, Party Poker, 4-tabling.

1. Hold'em: While I enjoy dabbling in Omaha and a little 2-7 Triple Draw, I'm sticking with Hold'em. This is the hottest game in the country, and if I can't make it as a hold'em player right now, I need to stop playing poker.

2. Cash Games: In my experience so far, I suck at tournaments. I'm good at the 1 table quick ones, but that's about it. I don't have what it takes to win these big online multitable tournaments. I'll still enter a few of them for fun, but I'm sticking with cash games mostly.

3. Limit: From time to time I've given serious consideration to moving to the no-limit side of the world. Everyone sees tournaments on TV and wants to go all-in. I have to imagine there are tons and tons of awful players playing no-limit these days. My first poker experiences were playing no-limit games with my buddies in college. I regularly destroyed those games, so I have to believe I've got some no-limit talent.

But I'm not comfortable making this switch yet. There are still lots of awful limit players all over the place, and I have a lot more experience with the limit game. II feel better playing no-limit when I can see my opponent. Limit hold'em is a lot more mechanical, and I can pick up very good reads based on betting patterns without seeing the players. So for now I'm sticking with limit.

4. $5/10: To pay the bills and try to build my bankroll to move up in limits, I need to be playing at least $5/10 most of the time. I'll play $3/6 if it is shorthanded or heads-up because I can get a lot more hands in, but for the most part I need to be looking to play higher.

5. Full-handed: This one is tricky. I've written a bit about the short-handed vs full-handed struggle. Playing poker live and at limits below $5/10 online I've always been very strong at shorthanded play. But that damn Party $5/10 6-max game is my master. I just can't beat it for some reason. I crush the $3/6 5-max on Paradise. So I'm not sure what my problem is with shorthanded play. I know I'd like to be able to play short, because you get in so many more hands. I don't know what to do here. This leads us to...

6. Party Poker: Party is my favorite online cardroom, and you've seen me pimping it from time to time. There are tons and tons of bad players, more than any other site. But since I've decided so far that I want to play $5/10 and higher, and I'd like the option of playing shorthanded (and winning), I have to look at the results. And the stats say that I'm just not winning enough in Party's limit hold'em games, full or short at $5/10 or higher.

So I'm starting to sniff out games at other sites, and I have noticed very distinct differences in playing styles at different sites. It is entirely possible that my playing style and strengths just don't work well against the games at Party. I'm a marginal winner at Party, but maybe I could be a big winner somewhere else.

Why would this be? A factor is that 6-max tables at Party are available most only at $1/2, $5/10, and $10/20. Those games are very popular, as are the $3/6 and $15/30 full-handed games. I have to think that the play in the full-handed games at the $5/10 and $10/20 levels is heavily influenced in some way by the abundance of short-handed games. I don't know exactly how it is influenced, but I definitely notice a difference in play when I go to other sites with different limit offerings.

Luckily, I'm not writing a thesis, so I don't have to figure out all the reasons. And I'm not trying to prove my skills to anyone, so I don't feel like I have to beat whatever game I play. I just have to make money. So I'm going to try to find games I can beat, which might mean less playing at Party, at least at these limits.

7. 4-tabling: I've been 4-tabling $5/10 because I 4-tabled $3/6. But as I was moving up from $1/2 to $2/4 to $3/6 I dropped some tables when I moved up, then gradually added them back. I never did that for $5/10. I probably should have.

I'm playing on a 17" monitor, so there is overlap for more than 2 tables at once. Maybe being able to see all of the players on every table all the time would help. I'll get a 21" monitor once I'm sure that 4-tabling is profitable for me.

But I read this guy's story. And some analysis of my results suggests that I do a lot better with fewer tables. So I'm going to try playing 2 tables for a while instead of 4.

So there it is. I decided to stick with limit hold'em cash games, and try playing 2 tables on various sites at $5/10 to $10/20 limits. In the 24 hours since the disastrous session that made me rethink things, I've won $1200 with my new approach. Its been a long day.

The Royal

In a $5/10 game yesterday I was dealt

A♠T♠

There was a limper, then a late position raise. I called the raise from the big blind, as did the limper, and the 3 of us saw the flop came down

Q♠K♠8♣

We both check to the raiser, who bets. I call with my strong draw, and the other guy calls. The turn comes

8♥

and everyone checks. The river delivers my

J♠

and I bet my Royal Flush. The preflop limper raises me, and then the preflop raiser 3-bets! I gladly cap with the mortal nuts. At this point the 1st guy gives up, and the preflop raiser calls me with

A♣T♣

I guess he thought I'd cap the river on a paired, flushable board with 2 pair. I won the $144 pot.

That is the 3rd royal flush I've hit at Party Poker in since December (all 3 were spades), and at least the 6th in my life. I seem to be a royal flush luckbox. I've often told the story of my first royal flush, but for those who have never heard it, here it is.



In college we used to run up to Atlantic City to play poker at the Taj. It was about a 3 hour drive, so we'd usually leave in the early afternoon when we woke up, get there early evening, play all night and then drive back. Occasionally we'd sleep in our car. Paying for a room never really crossed our minds.

You're supposed to be 21 to gamble in a casino there, and while they usually check IDs at the other table games, nobody ever IDed us in the poker room. I probably played a dozen casino sessions before my 21st birthday.

Driving home from one of these trips, The Biz told me "if you ever get dealt a royal flush you'll have to fold it." He went on to explain that he saw someone at his table hit one, and that the casino gives you a free dinner as a prize. They put the free dinner on your comp card, which you have to show valid ID to receive. So since I didn't have a comp card and didn't have a fake ID, I'd get busted if I made a royal. "Whatever, dude."

A few days later, The Biz and I were back in elegant AC. We were degenerates. A few hours into my $2/4 hold'em session I was dealt

J♠K♠

(Always spades) I limped in along with 29 other people. No fold'em hold'em, baby. The flop came

A♠T♠A♣

At this point I remember the warning, and I hope that there is a bet and a raise to me so I can reasonably fold my draw. But somehow all 29 people checked, and some brick hit the turn. I was thinking, "alright whatever moron was slowplaying their ace-three offsuit can go ahead and bet it now so I can fold." But somehow, everyone checked again. This was unheard of. So the river delivers my glorious nemesis, the bitch of spades.

Q♠

Now I start hoping that everyone checks again, so I can bet and then everyone will fold. But of course some jackass immediately bets. Everyone folds to me and I have a decision to make. Can I really fold a royal flush? How can I do that? I don't remember making the decision, I just remember my hand throwing out enough chips for a raise.

Please just fold, jackass! Of course he calls, and now I need to figure out what I'm going to do.

On the outside I proudly show my cards, while on the inside I'm thinking SHIT SHIT SHIT!

The dealer looks at my 2 spades, and the 3 spades on the board and announces "King-high flush."

YES YES YES! I like the sound of that. She doesn't notice it is a royal!

Then the rest of the table erupts in applause. "No, that's a ROYAL FLUSH!!! WOOHOOO!!!!"

SHIT SHIT SHIT!

The dealer calls for the floorperson, who I know will ask take my nonexistent comp card to give me my free dinner. When I tell the floorperson I don't have a comp card, she'll say "oh that's no problem, just come with me and we'll get you set up with one." Then she'll find out I'm not 21 and I'll go to jail and get raped. (I realize now they probably would have just told me to cash out and leave. But at the time it was scary.)

While the floorperson is making her way over, I turn to the woman next to me and ask what is going on. "Oh they'll give you a free dinner on your comp card."

"Oh, where is the dinner?" SHIT SHIT SHIT! She tells me it is to some restaurant upstairs. "Oh don't really like that place... plus I don't have a comp card..." SHIT SHIT SHIT!

"Well why don't you use my card?" she offers. YES YES YES! "Although all the floorpeople know me. They probably won't let you use it." SHIT SHIT SHIT!

Then she turns and sees that the floorperson coming over is the one guy that actually doesn't know her. She hands me her card, and I realize that there's no way I'll get away with giving a card with a woman's name on it. SHIT SHIT SHIT!

But then I look down at her card. Her name is Pat. YES YES YES!! Hooray for androgynous names!! I give the dude Pat's card, and he returns it 5 minutes later without incident. Pat got her dinner, and I got away with it. The End.


By the way, check out Luke's blog. Funny story about playing poker with Cameron Diaz.

Online Poker Screen Names 2

When you sign up to play poker at an online casino, you pick a screen name that other players see when you sit at a table. Here are some names I've played against. Players in red are losers in games I've played; green are winners.

(Online Poker Screen Names 1)

Sexual/Vulgarity:

• CugeHock - This must be Jon Reremy's alias
• RATDICK - Now that I think of it, Jon Reremy kinda looks like a rat.
• Stu Pidasso - This must be Ben Dover's alias
• BenDovr - Hmm, maybe not
• bend_over - I guess we dropped the formality
• TapalotaPuss - Sounds like a Bond girl. Um, actually maybe a Bond guy. No, that doesn't make sense either. Let's just move on.

Weird:

• KhanhAir - This is one of two things. Best case is that this guy's name is Khanh, or he's somehow affiliated with something named Khanh. In that case, he decided to come up with a play on words and related his name to the name of the movie "Con Air." That's like when my friend Erm had the IM screenname "ErmNHammer." I understand the pun and all, but couldn't you have come up with something cooler than baking soda or a crappy movie? (Yes, Con Air is on my honorary mention Badass Movies list, but I'm trying to make a point.) So that's the "good" case. The worse case is that this guy is in no way associated with the name Khanh at all, and he just thought he'd come up with an alternate spelling for Con Air. That would be really really weird.

• CMSyouup - "I'm on some team called CMS. We'll mess you up." NOBODY ON PARTY POKER KNOWS WHAT CMS IS! NOBODY CARES!! YOU CAN'T TALK SHIT WHEN NOBODY KNOWS WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT!!! WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU?

• CubstoWSin03 - Its early 2003, and you are sitting in your Chicago apartment. You're a big Cubs fan, and are thinking about baseball while you sign up to play Party Poker. Excited about your team's chances for the upcoming season, you decide to choose a name to predict success for your team. But you are a complete rampant idiot. The Cubs didn't make the World Series in 2003, and now its 2005 and you are still using this name. Also, if you are going to make big, bold and erroneous predictions about your team, why do you only pick them to get to the World Series? Why not pick them to win it? You should go throw yourself under the A-train.

• PsychoErectus -This is just a great name. Bravo. With a mind capable of producing this name, its no wonder he's won $347.50 in the 68 hands I've seen him play.
  

• weed4zeke -On the other hand, this moron has won $294.50 in 70 hands, proving that poker is for morons.
  

Gross:

• mymomishot - Oh I know she is.

Funny References:

• deadhooker - I'll assume this is a reference to a great scene from "Dirty Work."

• rikjaymesbch - Weird spelling of "I'm Rick James, bitch!" By the way, Dave Chappelle disappeared after signing a $50 million contract, and then turned up in a mental hospital in South Africa. I'm not making that up.

• SunTzu68 - I only include this because it leads me to the conclusion that someone, somewhere has probably combined Sun Tzu and 69. All's fair in love and war?

• fishbulbman - Homer Simpson is the fishbulbman.

Not satisfied

I'm not happy with my poker results.

After dropping almost $500 today in a 3 hour session (ugh), I've played 18,000 hands since moving to $5/10, and I'm only winning 1.06 BB/100 hands. In the 66,000 hands I've played while 4-tabling $3/6 and $5/10, my BB/100 is at 1.35. That is about $21.25 per hour of poker winning. Blegh.

While I do feel like my game is improving in certain ways, its not improving enough. I'm stagnating. I realized that aside from browsing through the 2+2 forums and reading Cardplayer articles, I haven't invested enough time in poker education lately. So I just ordered these books:

• Small Stakes Hold 'em: Winning Big With Expert Play, Ed Miller
• Doyle Brunson's Super System II
• Hold'Em Poker for Advanced Players, David Sklansky & Mason Malmuth

I would really like to get my winrate at $5/10 up to 2.0 BB/100, or at least over 1.5 for a meaningful number of hands before I make my next move up in limits. I see plenty of room for improvement in my game, and I can't be lazy about plugging leaks.

Online Poker Screen Names

When you sign up to play poker at an online casino, you pick a screen name that other players see when you sit at a table. Here are some names I've played against. Players in red are losers in games I've played; green are winners.


Sexual/Vulgarity:

• SexMachine69 - 95% chance this is some 15 year old dork with his mom's credit card.
• IButtSexU - Classy!
• fxxckyouall - that isn't my censoring effort, that was his brilliant idea
• LkmyNuts - In poker, the "nuts" are the best possible hand. Such clever double entendre!
• AAshole - Your starting cards in hold'em are called your "hole cards." Starting with 2 aces is the best possible starting hand. Such clever double entendre!

Weird:

• HeroinAbuser - Who thinks of this why they sign up to play poker? Weird.
• intheloo - Why would you claim to be in the bathroom you British weirdo?
• Kirk_Cameron - I didn't know this guy still had fans. Maybe this is is the actual actor from Growing Pains...
• 401k - Dude must really love pre-tax retirement savings.
• ImFrankZappa - No you aren't.
• DonCorleaone - Um, you spelled it wrong.

Gross:

• MrBrownfolks - I assume this is supposed to be racist.
• ShesGotWood - That female has an erection. Lovely.
• DogsGoneWild - These dogs are willing and able to do everything! It’s real, raw and uncensored! No rules, no owners, and of course, no collars!
• ILOVEMUNG - I'm not sure if I know what mung is, but it sounds gross.
• SerialRakist - The "rake" is the money that the casino takes from each pot as their fee for hosting the game. Apparently giving yourself a name that sounds like "serial rapist" is cool. Wow.
• WitchPoo - What can I say?

Reality

Its been a month since my last day of work. In 135 hours of poker play since then, I've made enough money to cover my expenses. Barely. And I made more money from bonuses and rakeback than I did from poker winnings.

If this is the best I can do, I won't be doing this for long.

But I'm willing to call this month an "adjustment period," be glad I made any money at all, and see if I can improve my results over the next month. I've still got a 6 month expense cushion so I'm not afraid to fail. If nothing else, I've bought myself a few months of freedom and a cool story.

But I don't think I will fail. I've probably learned more about the game in the last month than I have in several years combined. I'm making adjustments in my game and in my lifestyle that have already begun to yield positive results. And I've had months in the past where I made more money playing far fewer hours and at lower stakes, so I know I can do better.

That oughta teach him

I've been increasingly annoyed by my PartyPoker opponents' growing tendency to not raise preflop with AA or KK. I think that they are misapplying a no-limit concept to the limit game. In no-limit, it is sometimes a good move to just call the blind in early position with a big hand in hopes that someone will raise you from behind, and then you get to put in a massive reraise. But in fixed limit games, especially games where you are unlikely to see the same opponents ever again, I think that anything other than raising with these hands is horrible poker.

Really, I'm glad that my opponents are grossly misplaying their hands, but the deceptive nature of this move has cost me a few bets recently. So that, plus my general disdain for mindless trendy idiots has me pretty worked up about this issue. Tonight I got some revenge on one of these assholes.

In a $5/10 Hold'em game on Party, "asshole" called my $5 big blind in early position.

Asshole: K♠K♣

Everyone folded to me in the big blind, and I checked.

Me: A♣ 3♠

I would have folded if he had raised. Instead, I saw a free flop with $12 in the pot.

Flop ($12): 9♥, 7♣, Q♦

I check because I have nothing, and the asshole checks because he's an asshole. I would have folded if he had bet, but instead we saw a free turn card.

Turn ($12): A♦

Now I have a pair of Aces but no kicker. I check because the pot is small and I won't know what to do if I get raised, but also because he'd be likely to bet a lot of hands worse than mine at this point, which is what happens. Asshole bets $10 because he's an asshole and I call it.

River ($32): 6♠

I check for the same reasons, he bets again for the same reason, and I call and win the $49.50 pot (net of the $2.50 rake) with my pair of Aces.

Lets review my opponent's four decisions this hand.

Preflop
Call, instead of raising and winning the blinds uncontested

Flop
Check, instead of betting and winning the pot

Turn
Bet at a tiny pot with the worst hand

River
Bet at a small pot with the worst hand



Yup, he misplayed every single action. Seriously, you should sign up for Party Poker.

Poker Life (so far)

Many tragedies come from our physical and cognitive makeup. Our bodies are extraordinarily improbable arrangements of matter, with many ways for things to go wrong and only a few ways for things to go right. We are certain to die, and smart enough to know it. Our minds are adapted to a world that no longer exists, prone to misunderstandings correctable only by arduous education, and condemned to perplexity about the deepest questions we can entertain.

-Steven Pinker

I quit my job on March 25. I guess technically I quit a month before that, but my last day was March 25. I didn't know what I wanted to do for the rest of my life, but I knew I didn't want to work at GE any more. I knew I had always been curious what it would be like to play poker full time, so I decided until I figure out something better to do, I'd play a lot for a while and see how it went.

I had heard and read a lot about what its like to do this for a living. There are plenty of magazine articles, websites, TV shows, and internet message boards that discuss the pros and cons, highs and lows, feels, smells, and tastes of professional poker. A couple weeks ago, someone who has been there summed it all up for me: "Poker can be a brutal life, but a lucrative one. I wouldn't suggest it, but you'll find out for yourself."

I named my blog from the Buddha quote I have at the very bottom of this page. I can do all the research about poker life or what it would be like to work for another company or to go back to school, but its the "find out for yourself" part that resonates for me.

To be successful in a poker career, aside from poker talent, I always thought I would need to be capable of distancing myself from emotion and making rational decisions. I also figured I'd need to be comfortable with more of a "loner" lifestyle, and capable of good bankroll management. I believed I had these characteristics and abilities. I've always seen myself as unemotional and introverted, and with my finance background I didn't think I'd have trouble with the bankroll management.

Now, not even 3 weeks into this thing, how it going? I still believe I have the poker talent; I'm thriving on the solitude; Sleeping til 3pm is awesome; bankroll management hasn't been a problem yet. What I do question is my emotional capacity for coping with adversity.

Humans are social animals. We have always lived and worked in groups, and depended on our group for survival. Each person has to be trusted to contribute, and each person had to be able to trust the group will reward that contribution. Because this bond of trust is so important to the stability of a group, and thus to our individual survival, we have evolved certain emotions to reinforce it. Positive feelings like loyalty, honor, brotherly love, respect, dedication, patriotism, honesty and trust are a psychological glue that keep us together.

The flip side of that coin is that some of the strongest negative emotions we feel are reactions to breaking that social covenant. We feel guilt, shame or disgrace when we wrong someone who trusted us, and the wronged party feels betrayed and desires revenge. A highly developed negative sense is our "cheater-detection mechanism." 120,000 years ago it was "that bastard Og in cave 3 is eating more than his share of the antelope meat we caught" and today it is "that bastard Ogden in marketing barely did anything for this project, but he's going to take advantage of my hard work." We are all keenly alert for people taking advantage of us.

We all have experienced some form of these universal emotions, and understand the intense power they have over our actions. That power reflects the critical importance that working together played in the evolution of our species, and the danger of being taken advantage of.

What does that have to do with me and poker? Sometimes weird things can inadvertantly trigger those intense negative emotions. When someone catches the only card in the deck that could have beaten me, it feels like an injustice. It feels like the world owed me better, and someone has to pay for it. Obviously this is completely irrational. I know that if I'm in that situation 100 times, I'll win 98 of them and get paid off handsomely. But, my innate understanding of statistics isn't as well-tuned as my rational understanding, and my own mind betrays me as I feel a burn like I've been wronged.

Since March 26 I've played over 15,000 hands of poker. To put that in perspective, if you played in a casino and were dealt 30 hands an hour, you'd need about 3 months of playing 40 hours per week to play that many hands. But because internet poker is a lot faster, and I can play multiple tables simultaneously, that represents 71 hours of play and a little over 2 weeks. In this short time, I've seen the brutality to which Luke alluded. (So far the lucrative part eludes me.)

It usually doesn't bother me very much when I absorb one or two "bad beats." My style of play lends itself to them, because when I'm in there playing a hand, I usually started with something very strong, so usually my wilder opponents need to get lucky to beat me, which is of course going to happen some of the time. The theory is that it won't happen enough of the time to prevent me from winning overall, and long term it hasn't.

When it does start to bother me is when it happens a few times in a row, or on huge pots. In the last 2.5 weeks, I've suffered 3 months worth of bad beats, and the effect on my emotional state is cumulative. Feel the burn over and over, and that shit adds up.

In poker, when you let something bother you enough that your play suffers, it is called going on tilt. I've read world-class professionals say something to the effect of "I can't hope to eliminate tilt in my game, just to minimize it. I think of it as a business expense." They understand that it is part of our nature.

I've been suffering from short-term and long-term tilt lately. Short term tilt gets set off by a few tough beats in a row, and suddenly I'm playing hands differently that I normally would, usually to my disadvantage. Then those short-term downfalls and other factors have contributed to me playing poorly over a longer horizon. My recent woes, while likely at least partially just some bad luck, are probably also due to some questionable play on my part. Its a pretty viscious spiral. Brutal.

So while it wasn't realistic for me to expect to just dive right into this and be emotionally prepared for it, I do think that I can learn. I've made some key adjustments recently that I think are helping to put me back on track.

In regards to short-term tilt, I've started trying to implement a very simple remedy - count to 3. I'm trying to force myself to count to 3 before I make any action in big pots, or in hands that are likely to cause an emotional response. I noticed that often when I'm confronted by an unexpected raise from an opponent, that I too quickly go into a passive/defensive style of play. Sometimes this might be appropriate, but often it is not. Counting to 3 is helping already.

In regards to long-term, I've noticed I'm tending to play too passively overall lately. Related to this, I'm limping in early position with some weakish hands. In an effort to plug this leak as soon as possible, I've implemented a few rules:

1.) No limping in early position preflop (the first 3 people to act after the big blind). This means that if I'm in bad position, I either raise or fold. This is forcing me to dump hands like A8s, KJo, JTs, and 55 that I used to limp with.

2.) No open-limping. If I'm the first person into a pot, I am raising. Period.

3.) Assume your opponents are morons unless you have overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Act accordingly. This means that 99% of the actions you are faced with are pretty straight-forward. You can't bluff a calling station, and you can't check-raise someone who is afraid of their shadow. Bluff sparingly. Bet for value. Don't get fancy, jackass.

These rules aren't perfect, but they do more good than bad. They are part of Pinker's "arduous education" intended to help me overcome my natural tendancies. I think my game is starting to get back on track.

This is fun.

How am I losing?

How am I losing when these are my opponents? Look at this...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is Button with Th, Ah. UTG calls, 4 folds, CO calls, WeepForMe raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.
Flop: (8.33 SB) 4s, 4c, 4d (4 players)BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, WeepForMe bets, BB calls, UTG calls, CO folds.
Turn: (5.66 BB) 2s (3 players)BB checks, UTG checks, WeepForMe bets, BB calls, UTG calls.
River: (8.66 BB) 7d (3 players)BB checks, UTG checks, WeepForMe checks.
Final Pot: 8.66 BB
Results below: BB has Kd Ts (three of a kind, fours). UTG has Ad 9s (three of a kind, fours). WeepForMe has Th Ah (three of a kind, fours). Outcome: WeepForMe wins 8.66 BB.

This is weak passive poker from my 2 opponents here. Limping UTG (UTG = Under the Gun = 1st person to act after the blinds) with A9o is generally awful, mainly for the exact reason illustrated by this hand - if you are up against a better Ace you are in big trouble. I think calling a raise from a solid player with KTo from the big blind is a pretty bad play also, because too often you are up against a better King or a better Ten. Both of these guys called flop and turn bets with only 3 outs.

How can I be losing to these guys? Its not just the passive, suspicious call stations either:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: WeepForMe is Button with Ah, Ac. 5 folds, CO calls, WeepForMe raises, 2 folds, CO calls.
Flop: (5.33 SB) 3s, Jc, 7s (2 players)CO checks, WeepForMe bets, CO raises, WeepForMe calls.
Turn: (4.66 BB) 8h (2 players)CO bets, WeepForMe raises, CO calls.
River: (8.66 BB) 6d (2 players)CO checks, WeepForMe bets, CO calls.
Final Pot: 10.66 BB
Results below: CO has Qh 8c (one pair, eights). WeepForMe has Ah Ac (one pair, aces). Outcome: WeepForMe wins 10.66 BB.

Lets walk through this hand from the perspective of my opponent, Mr. CO (CO = Cutoff = the person sitting to the right of the button):

Hi, I'm the moron in the cutoff. Everyone folds to me, and I look down and see a potential monster hand with my unsuited Q8. Rather than raise and risk everyone folding and suffer the disaster of just stealing the blinds, I'm going to limp. Excellent! The unsuspecting fool in on the button raises for me! I'll just call for now. He'll never know what hit him.

HAHA!!! My dream flop, J73 with 2 spades! I have a spade! Oh no wait, I don't, but no matter. I still have the powerful Queen high. Given that the button raised preflop, he'll probably bet if I check, so I'll do that and continue my trap. He fell for it, what a chump! At this point the only possible hand he could have is AK, which I can't beat yet, but I know that nobody on PartyPoker ever calls to the river with an unimproved AK, I'm going to check-raise him and outplay him. Ha! He just called my raise, he must not have anything. Maybe I'm even winning with my Queen. I am so good at poker!!!!!

Woah, the turn was my supercard. Now I have a pair of eights, so I have to keep betting. What?? He raised?? He must not know I have a pair of eights. Hmmm, $6 more? I better call this. I guess he might have a better hand than me, but that seems pretty unlikely. I'll just play it safe and call.

Darn, that river didn't help me. I'll do this guy a favor and just check my pair of eights. He bet again? Maybe he has that Jack after all. I'm going to call him though, just to keep him honest. Nobody bluffs me out of a hand!

How am I losing to these hopeless bluffing clowns? Even when they stop bluffing, they just keep hoping...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is SB with Kd, Kh. UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, WeepForMe raises, 1 fold, UTG 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button folds, WeepForMe calls.
Flop: (11 SB) 4s, Ah, 5c (3 players)WeepForMe checks, UTG bets, MP2 calls, WeepForMe calls.
Turn: (7 BB) 4d (3 players)WeepForMe checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks.
River: (7 BB) 6h (3 players)WeepForMe bets, UTG folds, MP2 calls.
Final Pot: 9 BB
Results below: WeepForMe has Kd Kh (two pair, kings and fours). MP2 has 7c 7d (two pair, sevens and fours).
Outcome: WeepForMe wins 9 BB.

First let's talk to MP2 (middle position #2). Given a preflop raise from the SB (small blind) and a 3bet, and then 2 other people putting money in on an Ace-high flop, did you really believe that 77 could win this hand? Even when the UTG guy folds, what did you think I had? You watched me raise preflop from awful position. If you had been paying attention, you'd see I am a pretty tight player, so to raise from there I probably had to have a big pair or an Ace with a good kicker, right? In fact, the only pocket pair you can beat on the river is 22 or 33, so you must think I have that? Or maybe you thought I'd get wild with KQ? Please keep playing in my games.

Second, lets talk to trendy young man who decided after calling the blinds that he would try "that sweet move everyone is doing these days," the limp-reraise. Look son, I know you think that is a cool move to try with your 89s, but you really ought to save it for another time. Like maybe when you have a few more people in the pot, or a bit better position for later in the hand. Or maybe wait for when you have a fucking clue. Leave the big boy tools for the big boys to use. Go play on a swing set.

Ok, so in all of those hands I knew I was in pretty good shape, and was glad that my inept opponents made it easy for me. What about hands where it isn't so clear?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is BB with Th, 8s. 3 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, WeepForMe checks.
Flop: (3 SB) 5s, 3s, Ts (3 players)SB checks, WeepForMe bets, MP2 calls, SB calls.
Turn: (3 BB) Js (3 players)SB checks, WeepForMe checks, MP2 bets, SB calls, WeepForMe folds.
River: (5 BB) 3h (2 players)SB checks, MP2 checks.
Final Pot: 5 BB
Results below: SB has 6c 7s (flush, jack high). MP2 has 9h Td (two pair, tens and threes). Outcome: SB wins 5 BB.

Folding the best hand is always annoying. I had this hand wrong from beginning to end. I got to see the flop for free, and immediately didn't like the situation I was in. I actually flopped the exact same thing recently (I had top pair of tens on a flop with 3 spades and the 8 of spades as my kicker. I was up against someone with AT and the Ace of spades, and it sucked.) and didn't want the same thing to happen. When everyone called the flop bet I remember thinking that I had the best hand and that I hoped a spade didn't hit, so I checked when the spade hit. It never occured to me that MP2 might have been playing a ten, and that the SB would call a bet with no pair and a spade lower than my 8.

So I was completely clueless this hand. If this was $15/30 and we encountered the same flop situation, I would have bet, the T9 guy would have raised to protect his vulnerable top pair, and the small blind would have folded. Then I would have check-called the rest of the way and won. But I don't play $15/30 online. I don't play $15/30 because I don't have the bankroll. I don't have the bankroll because I can't beat $3/6 for enough money to build my bankroll. I also don't play $15/30 because every time I've taken a shot at it I get crushed. I get crushed probably for the same reason that I can't beat the $3/6 game, which is that I don't know what the hell I'm doing most of the time regardless of the limit. So I probably shouldn't play for higher stakes against better players. Not that that usually stops anyone.

Sorry for that rant. I conclude that my cluelessness this hand was only because my opponents misplayed their hands so much that I couldn't possibly know what what going on. I'll just keep telling myself that. (How am I losing to these guys?)

So usually I'm completely clueless. But sometimes I know what's up. Observe:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is UTG with Jd, Jc. WeepForMe raises, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls. Flop: (8.33 SB) 4c, Qs, 6h (4 players)BB bets, WeepForMe calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.
Turn: (6.16 BB) 5h (4 players)BB bets, WeepForMe folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds.
River: (8.16 BB) Ks (2 players)BB checks, UTG+1 bets, BB calls. Final Pot: 10.16 BB
Results below: BB has Qd 8s (one pair, queens). UTG+1 has 7h Ah (high card, ace). Outcome: BB wins 10.16 BB.

I've had a rough time today with JJ, and this time I knew enough to lay it down. I guess I smelled his Q, but apparently the guy who coldcalled my UTG raise with A7 did not get the whiff. How am I losing to these people?

In the next hand I combined cluelessness and a sense of smell. I smelled danger, but I'm clueless as to whether it was right.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: WeepForMe is Button with Qs, Kc. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, WeepForMe raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.
Flop: (8.33 SB) Kh, 7h, Jd (4 players)BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, WeepForMe raises, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.
Turn: (7.16 BB) 3d (3 players)UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, WeepForMe bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 raises, WeepForMe calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MP3 caps, WeepForMe folds, UTG+1 calls.
River: (17.16 BB) 3c (2 players)UTG+1 folds.
Final Pot: 17.16 BB
Results below: MP3 doesn't show. Outcome: MP3 wins 17.16 BB.

Everything was going along fine until the turn. I had a decent hand got a decent flop, although not one I was entirely comfortable with. There were lots of draws, so I wanted to keep the pressure on.

On the turn, Mp3 (middle position 3) checkraised me, which sent off huge warning bells on this board, especially because I had observed that player to be very straightforward (he had the Q8 from the last hand). It probably meant he had a set, but I called 1 more bet hoping that he had a vulnerable 2 pair and I had the odds to chase it.

Then in got weird, as UTG+1 (UTG+1 = the guy after UTG = 2nd to act after the blinds) decided to 3bet it. Given his actions so far I read this to mean he had a big draw, either the nut heart flush draw from the flop since he bet at it, or perhaps he bet the flop with QT for an openended straight draw and maybe backed into the diamond flush draw also. I thought I had him beat, but when the guy caps, I let go of my hand. I'm pretty sure I would have lost, but for 17 bets I have to be pretty damn sure of it for the laydown to be correct.

At this point, you'll notice that I've been folding a lot of hands. You might suggest that the reason I'm losing is that I'm folding too often, even if the hands I've shared here all should have been folded. Maybe that is the case, or maybe not:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: WeepForMe is CO with 6d, 6c. 3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, WeepForMe calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls.
Flop: (9 SB) Tc, 4c, 7d (4 players)SB checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, WeepForMe raises, SB folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.
Turn: (7.50 BB) 3c (3 players)MP2 checks, MP3 bets, WeepForMe calls, MP2 folds.
River: (9.50 BB) 2s (2 players)MP3 bets, WeepForMe calls.
Final Pot: 11.50 BB
Results below: MP3 has Ad Qc (high card, ace). WeepForMe has 6d 6c (one pair, sixes). Outcome: WeepForMe wins 11.50 BB.

Sometimes I'll fold 66 to a preflop raise, sometimes I'll 3 bet. This time I called.

That isn't a flop that was likely to have helped anyone. Mp2 seemed to be thinking the same thing when he bet the flop, and when the preflop raiser just called it, I decided to raise. I thought there was a decent chance I had the best hand, and I wanted see where I stood. I didn't like it that the SB called 2 cold, but he later folded the turn for 1 bet, so he's an idiot.

The preflop raiser comes to life and bets out when the turn brings a 3rd club. This struck me as extremely suspicious. Given that he raised preflop, if he had 2 big clubs in his hand, I think he would have raised the flop. I think he also would have raised the flop with an overpair or with a ten in his hand, so I concluded that he must have decided to bet out with the A or K of clubs as a semibluff. I definitely wasn't going to fold, but I decided I didn't want to raise and then get 3bet by MP2 if he was betting out on the flop with a flush draw. In retrospect I think I should have raise here to force MP2 to fold a 7 or a T, but luckily he must not have had a pair because he folded. I conclude he didn't have a pair because nobody in the history of Party Poker $3/6 has ever folded a pair for 1 bet.

The river call is easy, and I win a big pot with a shitty hand, because I'm so very awesome. How am I losing to these players?

Obviously I picked these hands specifically to tell a story. Given the thousands of hands I play, I could probably pick out a few hands that tell any story I want. (Maybe I should do a followup post, "Oh wait... this is why I'm losing." I have about 17,000 hands to tell that story.)

That is what makes a losing streak of this duration so frustrating, especially when my key metrics really haven't changed at all. I could come up with any kind of theory about what is wrong, and I'd probably be able to find plenty of evidence for it. But then I'd get cute and be able to find plenty of evidence against it as well. There are no easy answers. I'll keep doing analysis both of individual hands and of my overall stats, hoping to find something that I can fix, but I'm resigned to the idea that it won't be so simple. For now I'm just going to keep playing. I think I can turn it around.

Because making unbeatable hands is so rare, playing hold'em without confidence is dangerous. Even the worst players seem to be able to smell blood somehow, even online. And so losing can be contagious and there is no simple prescription like "tighten up," "be more aggressive," or "more cowbell." I think that one thing writing this helped me realize is that my instincts are usually pretty good, and maybe too often I'm talking myself out of following them.

Thoughts?

Hand analysis

It is nice to have someone to talk about hands with.

Adspar: i 3bet an UTG raiser (his VPIP is 19%) w/TT, that guy cold calls
Adspar: K7x flop, UTG checks, i bet, cold call folds
Adspar: UTG checkraises, i fold
Adspar: what do you think?
Adspar: i cant imagine him taking that line with a hand i can beat
DK: i agree
DK: the pot may have been big enough to try and spike a 10 though
DK: if it was 3 bet preflop
Adspar: hmm
DK: and you think it will be good
Adspar: if he has AK
DK: in general i hate getting mixed up with those guys thougu
Adspar: he's 91% favorite
Adspar: basically 10 to 1
DK: yeah
DK: the pot was laying you more than that i imagine
Adspar: and i'm getting 12 to 1 on my call
DK: so i think unless you think he has KK you can call that
Adspar: but for him to raise preflop
Adspar: and then checkraise me after i 3bet him
DK: yeah
DK: strong
Adspar: he's got to put me on AA, KK, QQ, AK when i 3bet
Adspar: and knowing his own cards, he can rule out some of those
Adspar: so for him to 3bet i gotta think KK is in there enough to maybe justify the fold
Adspar: i should have thought about that 12-1 price though
DK: sometimes you can tell too by whether he capped preflop
DK: some people are always cap
DK: some are not
Adspar: i just thought: i'm up against AA, KK, or AK
DK: yah
Adspar: if he definitely had one of those, its probably a good fold still
DK: yah
Adspar: actually, if he definitely has AA, KK, AK then its by far a good fold
DK: well yeah
DK: KK is a big chunk there
Adspar: 6 ways AA, 3 ways KK, 12 ways AK
DK: so 17% time KK or so
DK: 14%
DK: rather
Adspar: so 86% of the time i have a 9% chance to win. 14% i have basically 0
DK: yeah
Adspar: so i have 7.7%
DK: so what way does that tip it
Adspar: thats basically 12 to 1
DK: hah
Adspar: so i can do whatever i want
DK: yeah
DK: if you think that's too conservative, call
Adspar: probably with the implied odds its worth playing
DK: this is all with the understanding that you're probably folding the turn
DK: ooh yeah
Adspar: good to know for next time some moron cold calls 3 and juices it up
DK: yah
DK: so how many bets did we neeed
DK: 12 to 1
Adspar: for even money, yes
DK: which is 3 * 3
Adspar: huh?
DK: i was just thinking 3 players 3 bets
DK: preflop
Adspar: right, plus my 1 and UTG's 2 on the flop
DK: yah

Conclusion - It would have probably been right to see the turn here, but its a close call.

Its better to be lucky than good

"Its better to be lucky than good" is a saying I hear all the time around poker games. Here are some hands from tonight to illustrate. Results and commentary are in white beneath the hands, to preserve suspense for you, my faithful reader. Simply highlight the text in that area to get your jollies.



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is MP2 with 9s, As.
4 folds, Golden Boy raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 9c, 5s, Qc (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB raises, Golden Boy 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 6d (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB calls.

River: (7.16 BB) Td (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB

Results and commentary in white below:
BB has Jc Tc (one pair, tens).
Golden Boy has 9s As (one pair, nines).
Outcome: BB wins 9.16 BB.

I somehow knew he had JTc when he checkraised that flop. I was sure of it. That actually makes him a favorite (66-34) but I decided to 3bet, partially to get information to validate my read, and partially to make him think I have a Q instead of a 9. When he hits the ten on the river, I bet hoping he'd fold because I played the hand like I had a queen. Oh well.

Maybe I should classify this as him getting lucky, since he did have the better hand on the flop. But I wouldn't have put another bet in on the river if he hit his flush or straight, which is what he was hoping for. Only the Jack or the Ten would have gotten him that extra bet. So he's lucky? Whatever, lets move on...



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is Button with As, Ts.
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 4 folds, Golden Boy 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 caps, Golden Boy calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 6d, 7h, 8d (3 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy raises, BB calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 5d (3 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB raises, Golden Boy folds.

River: (11.16 BB) 2h (2 players)

Final Pot: 11.16 BB
Results in white below:
BB has Qh 9h (straight, nine high).
UTG+2 has 8h Ac (one pair, eights).
Outcome: BB wins 11.16 BB.

Normally I'd fold ATs to an early position raise, but there were several factors that made me strongly suspect I had the best hand. I had just seen the guy limp and then horribly misplay AK, so he seemed like he'd be likely to misplay other hands. He was also very shortstacked, and I've seen enough of these shortstacked donkies to know that they play stupid hands way too hard. So I 3bet hoping to isolate him. Alas, the brilliant player in the big blind decides his Q9s is worth calling 2 cold, and he hits his hand on the turn. I like my read and my play, but its better to be lucky than good.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is UTG+2 with 7d, 7h.
2 folds, Golden Boy raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 4c, Kd, 3d (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Golden Boy bets, MP3 calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: (5 BB) 3h (2 players)
Golden Boy bets, MP3 calls.

River: (7 BB) As (2 players)
Golden Boy checks, MP3 bets, Golden Boy calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB

Results in white below:
Golden Boy has 7d 7h (two pair, sevens and threes).
MP3 has 5h 2h (straight, five high).
Outcome: MP3 wins 9 BB.

Obviously this guy is a dolt, calling 2 cold with 52s. I was sure he didn't have a King when he simply called the flop, so I bet the turn, and check-called the scary river. I expected to see A6o or some crappy Aces, but the wheel said: It is better to be lucky than good!


I've disguised which hand is mine here.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop:
2 folds, MPA raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, MPA calls.

Flop: (10 SB) Ts, Qd, Ks (3 players)
SB folds, MPA bets, CO raises, MPA 3-bets, CO caps, MPA calls.

Turn: (9 BB) Qs (2 players)
MPA bets, CO raises, MPA 3-bets, CO calls.

River: (15 BB) As (2 players)
MPA checks, CO bets, MPA calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Results in white below:
MPA has Kc Qh (full house, queens full of kings).
CO has Td Tc (full house, tens full of queens).
Outcome: MPA wins 17 BB.

I had the KQ. I opened for a raise, and was very uncomfortable when a tight solid winning player 3bet me. He'd have to have a big pair or AK or unlikely AQ. Since I have KQ, I figured his most likely holdings are AA, JJ, TT. If the small blind hadn't called, I would have seriously considered folding, but I had to call 1 more bet getting 9 to 1 on my call.

At first I love the flop. If he has AA, AK or AQ, he's in serious trouble. There's no way he has AJ, but I do need to be worried about TT or the JJ open-ended straight draw. I decide to bet out , planning to 3bet, rather than go for a checkraise or wait for a later street to reraise. I want to get as much money in this flop as possible if he's drawing. When he caps instead of calling the 3bet, I'm seriously concerned about TT. I've represented AJ pretty well, so I think with AA or JJ he'd just call the flop probably, although maybe he'd keep ramming AA.

I catch a beautiful turn card and get 3 bets in on the turn. He thinks I have AJ at this point, so he raises my bet, but changes his mind when I 3bet him. At this point his most likely hand is TT, but AA or JJ with the Js are still possible, which is why the river scares me and I check. I didn't lose any money though, cause he wouldn't have raised a river bet, but he'll bet TT if I check to him.

Preflop he was a 56.5% - 43.5% favorite, and on the flop he was an 82% favorite. I got lucky!

Some hands

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Your Favorite Chump is MP2 with 6h, 6d.
3 folds, Your Favorite Chump raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Your Favorite Chump calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 9s, 5s, 3d (4 players)
SB bets, BB raises, Your Favorite Chump folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) Td (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks.

River: (6.50 BB) Th (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB
Results in white below:
SB has 5h Ac (two pair, tens and fives).
BB has Kh Ah (one pair, tens).
UTG+1 doesn't show.

Argh! I hate folding the best hand. As I folded, I thought to myself, "I hope that BB doesn't have AK." Dammit.

-------

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Your Favorite Chump is BB with As, Kc.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, 4 folds, Your Favorite Chump calls, UTG+2 calls.

Sometimes I'd reraise this, but I because I'm out of position and to disguise the strength of my hand.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 5d, 4h, 7d (3 players)
Your Favorite Chump checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, Your Favorite Chump raises, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls.

I like this flop because it isn't likely to have helped the preflop raiser, and it looks like the kind of flop that could have helped a small blind. Unless the raiser has a pocket pair, I'm probably beating him, so the checkraise to force out the big blind is a play I like a lot.

Turn: (5.16 BB) Qc (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump checks, MP2 bets, Your Favorite Chump calls.

Ew, I don't like that Queen. He probably has AQ, AJ, or KQ, so I'm afraid he might have hit, but I'm reluctant to fold. So I call like a chump.

River: (7.16 BB) 3d (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, MP2 calls.

This card completes a flush and a straight draw, so I take a shot at it.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB
Results in white below:
Your Favorite Chump has As Kc (high card, ace).
MP2 has Qh Ah (one pair, queens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 9.16 BB.

Crap. Love the way I played it until the turn. The river isn't bad either. Probably should have folded on the turn though. Crap.

-----
Guess who has what, and which I am:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, MPB 3-bets, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 caps, MPB calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 4s, 7c, 3d (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, MPB raises, MP3 calls, SB calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MPB calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) 7h (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, MPB raises, MP3 calls, SB folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (20.50 BB) 6d (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MPB bets, MP3 calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 23.50 BB

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has Kc Kd (two pair, kings and sevens).
MPB has Ah As (two pair, aces and sevens).
MP3 has Qd Qh (two pair, queens and sevens).

Outcome: MPB wins 23.50 BB.

I had the Aces. Silly.
-----

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Your Favorite Chump is BB with Ad, Jh.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 6 folds, Your Favorite Chump calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) Qd, 7c, Ks (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 4d (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (5.16 BB) Th (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, UTG+1 raises, Your Favorite Chump 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, Your Favorite Chump calls.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB
Results in white below:

Your Favorite Chump has Ad Jh (straight, ace high).
UTG+1 has Kd Kh (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: Your Favorite Chump wins 13.16 BB.

I bet the flop and turn hoping that the preflop raiser had an underpair or AJ or AT, but planning to fold to a raise. Whoops!

what to do

Brainstorming about my tendency to lose early in my live mid-limit hold'em sessions and win late...

Idea: Hunt at night.

My sessions usually start in the day or early evening and go into the night. I lose during the day and win later. Late at night there are more people drinking and more people who are stuck and trying to get even, so I have an easier time beating the loose drunks than the sober daytime regulars . Also, play tends to get shorthanded, which I consider a strength of mine, so maybe avoiding the full daytime tables is another reason to try this. Staying up all night was tough when I knew I had to go back to the 9 to 5 world, but that won't apply for a while.

Idea: Know everything about everyone

The longer I play, the more I know about the players in the game. Maybe my success at the end of sessions is because I've reached a tipping point of knowing enough about everyone and being able to use that information profitably. So the idea would be to find a game where its the same faces all the time so I don't have to spend the first 6 hours paying to learn about the strangers.

Idea: Centaurian Standard Time

Will Smith: Zed, don't you guys ever get any sleep around here?

Rip Torn: The twins keep us on Centaurian time, standard thirty-seven
hour day. Give it a few months. You'll get used to it... or you'll have a
psychotic episode.

- Men In Black

If I know I have to put in 6 or 10 hours before I start to really make money, maybe I should accept it and plan for marathon sessions. I haven't played longer than 12 hours in a row very often, and it gets to be a pretty weird feeling after a while.

Idea: Tight now, Loose later

I could just get super ultra tight for the first few hours. That way I'm only entering pots with by far the best of it, and I can focus on learning people instead of playing hands. I think that my style of play is usually best when I can be slightly on the loose side, but setting that up with several hours of extreme tightness could give me a very dangerous image. It could get pretty boring, but I think I have the discipline to pull it off. This means folding AJo, KQs, and 66 in early position in an unopened pot. It means folding QJs in middle position. It means folding AQs to most raises (which I often do anyway). It means mucking KTo or 98s on the button unless I have like 4 limpers ahead of me and the blinds look passive. It means looking down at AK in the big blind when there is an UTG raise and a late 3bet and tossing big slick into the muck. I'd make Rolf Slotboom proud.

Vegas II

When I spent 8 days at the Commerce Casino last year, I got pretty burnt out on poker after the fourth or fifth day playing 12 hours of poker, so I wanted to make sure I spent some time more recreationally than playing poker at stakes I consider serious. So I set out to Vegas with the intention of the trip being part business and part pleasure, and I kept that balance.

On the pleasure side, I finally met a bunch of guys that I've played fantasy basketball, baseball and football with for a few years now. Normally I don't like people, but I genuinely liked all of them. We saw Norm MacDonald's standup act at the House of Blues, which was a lot of fun. Norm's poker comment was that he had done the Celebrity Poker Challenge recently, and that the real challenge of it is identifying the other celebrities. Not bad. At some point in his ramblings, after assuring us he's not gay, he mentioned a man's "beautiful shaven balls" and "shiny cock."

Norm.

I spent an afternoon in a packed sports book watching basketball (yes, NCAA basketball), hit some buffets, and took some time to just walk around and check things out. Vegas is a weird place. You can walk down the street with an open container of alcohol, everyone is drunk all the time, and nobody thinks anything of it. Its like frat row with more money.

I was walking past Caesar's palace in the afternoon one day and watched a guy trying to light a cigarette and take a sip of his Corona at the same time. Suddenly he stopped and said to his buddy "smell those flowers and shit, man!"

Indeed they were some lovely and fragrant blossoms. Even in Sin City, while imbibing of 2 vices at the same time and standing outside of a palace built on gambling addiction, it is important to stop and smell the flowers and shit. It is also important to take a musical journey through one unforgettable voice: Clint Holmes.



The poker results were a bit frustrating and I basically broke even. I really only played 2 serious sessions, and continuing with a pattern I established for myself at the Commerce, I lost a lot of money early in the early hours of my sessions, held steady for a few more hours, and then got it all back towards the end. I'm sure I'll write more about the poker over the next few days.

Thanks to Erm for covering my room, and to Budden for hooking up the Norm tickets. Going to work today sucked, but knowing Friday is my last day made it much more tolerable.

Other Poker Sightings

I'm bored at work (4 more days), so here are other people I've seen in casinos that are somewhat famous, and pictures of them that I took myself.



Phil Helmuth - Saw him at the Taj in Atlantic City playing some tournament. He was better at poker than everyone in the room, and everyone in the entire history of the world, but for some reason he only had 1 chip. Poor Phil.


Daniel Negreanu - Saw him at the Taj in Atlantic City playing some tournament. He was very excited to see me.


Spiderman - He was playing a $10 and $20 blind No Limit Hold'em game at the Commerce Casino. What a goofy rich bastard.


James Woods - He was playing $20-40 Limit Hold'em at the Commerce, and looking very sharp.


Bill Clinton - Now that he is retired, he's taken up poker. I took this picture while he was in a $50-100 Limit Hold'em game at the Taj. His opponent had just raised on the river when the board paired. Not surprisingly, Bubba couldn't lay down his flopped nut flush, and he was only a little disappointed to see Queens full of Kings.


Anna Kournikova - Another retiree who couldn't resist the lure of the felt. After posing for this picture, she told me she likes playing Stud Hi-Lo for the split pot action.


Gandhi - He's a regular in the mid-limit hold'em games at the Mirage in Vegas. I took this after my AsKs beat his Ah8c on a [Ad Kc 3s] [5s] [8s] board. He told me I was a "lucky little fucker," then threw his cards at the dealer, then took off his shirt and stood on his chair berating me. He tips the cocktail waitresses $10 after every double bourbon he orders though, so they put up with his antics.

Vegas I

More on the trip later...


Poker Celeb Sightings:


Doyle Brunson - He was rolling through the Bellagio on his scooter, wearing a cowboy hat.


Phil Ivey - He was sitting in the big game at Bellagio.


Jennifer Harmon - She was also sitting in the big game at Bellagio.


Non-Poker Celeb Sightings:


Norm MacDonald - Saw his standup act Friday night. "I blew a dog for some bathtub gin."



Tommy Lee - He was strutting around the Mirage with a posse of freaks like him. I took this picture myself.

Curious George looks deeply at a hand

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: Curious George is SB with 8c, 8d. CO posts a blind of $3. 2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Curious George completes, BB checks.

My options here were calling or raising. So far only 1 person has voluntarily put money into the pot, and he limped, so there probably aren't any big hands out there. But 1 more bet to everyone probably won't drive anyone out except maybe the big blind, so I think calling is ok. This way I get out cheap if there are a lot of overcards, but I have potential for a deceptively strong hand. Long run, I don't think the call/raise decision matters much here.

Flop: (4 SB) 9s, 2h, 3s (4 players) Curious George bets.

While any of my 3 opponents could have a 9, there is a pretty good chance that I have the best hand right now. I'm first to act on this flop, so my decision is check or bet. Again, I think this is close.

If I check, it is with the intention of check-raising unless I see a good reason not to. Since this flop isn't likely to have helped anyone, the early position players are likely to check, but one of the later players will often throw in a bluff to try to steal the pot uncontested. This lets me checkraise and blast out anyone in between with forcing them to call a double-bet, or possibly take down the pot right there.

The downside of betting out is that a lot of these players are likely to "take a card off" here with almost any holding, and even though I'm a favorite over a lot of their likely holdings, my hand is definitely vulnerable to overcards, and I'm in bad position. So if I bet and get a caller or two, I don't get any information, and I won't know what to do with most turn cards.

However, I decided to bet out. Even though going for a checkraise was tempting, I didn't want to risk everyone checking around and giving all 3 of them a free card. Even if that free card didn't help them, I'd have a tough decision on the turn, and might have to check again and risk giving another free card. By betting out I put immediate pressure on them, and can gain information.

Flop: (4 SB) 9s, 2h, 3s (4 players) Curious George bets, BB folds, MP1 raises, CO folds, Curious George calls.

Someone raises and everyone has folded back to me. I have 3 options now, but I'm only thinking about a call or a reraise. I made a note earlier in the session that my opponent (who I'll call Daunte, since his screen name referred to the Viking's QB) check/called a King high flop that contained a flush draw with KTo, and then bet out on the turn with his top pair when the flush card didn't hit. This tells me that Daunte is a bit tricky and would be very capable of raising this hand with lots of hands I can beat, so I never considered folding. I conclude he likely has 2 overcards (but not AK, KQ, AQ which he would likely have raised) or maybe a pocket pair lower than mine (but not a set, which he'd likely slowplay). A2, A3, A4 are also possibilities.

If I 3bet, he'd almost certainly call 1 more small bet, which would create a pot big enough that he'd likely call a turn bet even if he didn't improve. Thinking that I'd prefer to avoid a river, I decided to just call Daunte's raise and see what the turn brought.


Turn: (4 BB) Kh (2 players)Curious George bets, MP1 folds.
Final Pot: 5 BB
Results below: No showdown. Curious George wins 5 BB.

While the overcard on the turn was scary, I decided to bet out. It was a combination of factors that led to the decision, but my biggest thought was the classic advice: "if you would call a bet anyway, you might as well bet yourself." While that concept applies mainly to the river, a simpler adage sealed the deal for me: "when in doubt, bet!" Daunte recognizes a tricky play when he sees it, and this is similar to the move I had seen him make. So I figured my betting out here would be a disorienting play after I had just called the flop raise, and it would put pressure on my opponent again. It did. He folded. I won.

I was pretty happy with myself at first, and made a note of this hand, but then I started to wonder about my play. If my opponent had 2 overcards, which was my primary read, I did an excellent job of recognizing his tricky flop raise for what it was, and then seizing back the momentum on the turn in spite of a threatening card for my hand. I took down a small pot before he had a chance to catch me.

But on the other hand, what if he had 66 or 77? If I had checked the turn, he probably would bet, and might bet again on the river if I checked to him, getting me one or 2 more big bets out of him. He might even keep betting with just the overcards even if he didn't hit the river. Maybe I cost myself here.

Writing up this analysis, I notice that I had very close decisions preflop, on the flop, and on the turn. If those decisions were truly close to even in terms of EV (expected value), then long run they don't particularly matter, and there isn't much point scrutinizing them.

But on the other hand, something about my play here leads me to something I'd like to investigate further. I played this hand very conservatively. While it looks aggressive and maybe even reckless, my bet out on the turn gives me a chance to fold if he raises, or take the pot down without a river card. Checking here would be risky.

I'm mired in a tough losing streak (good time to quit your job, Rockefeller) and now that I think about it, it feels like I haven't been seeing as many showdowns as I used to, and I've noticed that my [%ShowdownsWon] has looked rather high lately. I need to look back at my pokertracker stats and see if this is a hole in my game.

If I'm winning a higher percentage of showdowns, it means I'm playing more conservatively. This could have 2 related negative effects on my win rate - 1) if I'm folding the best hand even 1/6th of the time it is costing me money since pots are usually at least 7BBs, and 2.) if my opponents see that I'm not willing to take marginal hands to the river, they could pounce on this weakness and play more aggressively against me.

I'll do the research on this soon, but now I gotta go play basketball.

Meanwhile, back at the tables...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Handsome Champion is UTG+2 with 7h, 7s.
2 folds, Handsome Champion raises, 4 folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 5h, 2c, Jc (2 players)
Handsome Champion bets, Button raises, Handsome Champion calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) Qd (2 players)
Handsome Champion bets, Button calls.

River: (6.66 BB) 6d (2 players)
Handsome Champion checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 6.66 BB

Results:
Handsome Champion has 7h 7s (one pair, sevens).
Button has 9d Jh (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Button wins 6.66 BB.

Thoughts: I'll almost always bet out on this flop. All he's done so far is coldcall the raise from the button, so who knows what he has. When he raises, he is representing a pair of Jacks, but he could have a flush draw or some other weird hand. I refuse to let this go for one flop raise, but I doubt I'd get much information from 3betting the flop, so I just call. The turn bet is what makes this hand interesting. I still don't know where I am, so if I checked and he bet, I still don't think it would be right to fold, but then I still wouldn't know what to do on the river if I don't hit the miracle 7. So I like betting out here - if he was on a draw from the flop, I don't let him take a free card, but if he had a pair of Jacks, the Queen is a scare card for him, so he won't raise. If he had raised, I can easily fold. The weird turn bet scared him enough not to bet when I check the river, so I got a free showdown, and laughed on the inside when I saw he coldcalled my preflop raise with J9o.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Handsome Champion is SB with 4c, 4d.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Handsome Champion completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 7c, 2d, 3d (6 players)
Handsome Champion checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Button bets, Handsome Champion raises, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (5 BB) Jd (2 players)
Handsome Champion bets, Button raises, Handsome Champion folds.

Final Pot: 8 BB

Thoughts: On the flop I think there's a good chance I have the best hand, but I can't bet out into 5 other players, so I check to see what happens. Given the preflop and flop action, the button's bet could easily be with a hand that I can beat, so I check-raise and blast everyone else out. I can't check the turn and let a worse hand hit a better pair or complete the diamonds, and it makes it easy to fold to a raise.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Handsome Champion is UTG with Qc, Qh.
Handsome Champion raises, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, Handsome Champion caps, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.33 SB) 9d, 8h, 4c (5 players)
BB checks, Handsome Champion bets, UTG+1 raises, MP3 calls, BB 3-bets, Handsome Champion folds, UTG+1 caps, MP3 calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14.66 BB) 9h (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, BB calls.

River: (17.66 BB) 5h (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 20.66 BB

Results:
BB has Js Jd (two pair, jacks and nines).
UTG+1 has Ts 9s (three of a kind, nines).
MP2 doesn't show.
MP3 has 4h 5d (two pair, nines and fives).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 20.66 BB.

Thoughts: This is some kind of weird reverse bad-beat. I made the wrong play (folding the best hand on the flop in a huge pot) but got lucky when some idiot hit three of a kind. Wow these players are crazy.



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Handsome Champion is MP2 with Jc, Ah.
UTG calls, 2 folds, Handsome Champion raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG folds, Handsome Champion calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) Jd, 8c, 7h (2 players)
Handsome Champion checks, CO bets, Handsome Champion calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 2d (2 players)
Handsome Champion checks, CO bets, Handsome Champion calls.

River: (7.16 BB) Th (2 players)
Handsome Champion bets, CO raises, Handsome Champion calls.

Final Pot: 11.16 BB

Results:
Handsome Champion has Jc Ah (one pair, jacks).
CO has 9c 9s (straight, jack high).
Outcome: CO wins 11.16 BB.

Thoughts: I think my play is good until the river. On the river I should only make that bet if I'm willing to fold to the raise. If I'm not willing, I have to check/call. I made the bet planning to fold to a raise, but then I talked myself out of it. Poor.