short term is pretty

Last Thursday, for some reason I decided to sit in the Party $5/10 6max game for some reason. That particular game had always given me fits, but it was good to me this week. If I could maintain a third of this winrate over 50,000 hands I'd be beyond thrilled.

Need to get used to 30BB swings

A pair of short sessions today, both are 3-tabling.

A little over an hour this morning:



An hour this afternoon:

Cool... shit ... yay!!

3 tables of $5/10 6max on Party. 7:30am to 9am today. Why bother with coffee?

A new day

I kinda like posting these session graphs. Maybe I'll keep doing this.

12am to 1:50 am, 2 tabling Party $5/10 6max:



Miscellaneous $5/10 shorthanded on Absolute between 2am and 6am



today combined with yesterday:

Add on the next session

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I swear a fucking miracle happens every single hand in these games. I sit down and instantly suffer an unspeakable string of beats. I guess it is because every player takes any remote semblance of a hand all the way to showdown no matter what.

You'd think that with those conditions I'd

1.) be able to win
2.) not cry like a 6 year old girl about every bad beat.

Unfortunately I can't accomplish either of those. Why do I keep torturing myself?

Party 6max

I'm always complaining about Party's 6-max games. I like to imagine that I'm the most unlucky man alive, but I'm sure I've been doing something wrong. This chart is from a 2 hour session at $5/10 this morning, and illustrates how severe the swings are in this game. I'm sure players who frequent the shorthanded tables could show you even more severe variance. It makes it pretty easy to get frustrated. Note that if I had given up after an hour, the tone of this post would be a lot less playful.

More pictures: Poker Graphs

Graphs to accompany this post. Slightly updated to include play between this post and that one.

Each limit since June 05 (click images to enlarge)

$3/6 (0.77 BB/100)

This starts out mostly 4 tabling, then moves to 6. I expect my winrate drops as I add 2 more tables, but if it is 70% of my 4 table rate or better, I make a better hourly rate. Hard to draw any definite conclusions, but I think I might be better with 4 or 5.


$5/10 (1.35 BB/100)


You can see the downswing I've been moaning about recently in the fall from the peak at 20k hands. Looks like I've been coming out of it. There are a variety of multitable patterns over these hands, so its hard to analyze that variable.

$10/20 + $15/30 combined (0.53 BB/100)



In like a lion, out like a lamb. Not surprising is that in the lion phase I was playing mostly 1 or 2 tables at a time (and I actually have 11k more hands in my other database at $10/20 winning 2.1 BB/100). Pretty much exactly the time I moved to 3 or 4 tables is when the curve turns downward. Since that time, I think I've greatly improved my ability to play 4 tables, but I'm going to be very very conservative about expanding beyond 2 tables when I get back to these limits. I'll have to play more hours to make up for the lower hourly volume.

my poker past and future

After a terrible evening, I decided to do some poker introspection. The following is semi-stream of consciousness.

Let's put tonight's loss in perspective.

At all levels since June 1, I've won 0.76 BB/100 in 120,000 hands.

$3/6: 0.77bb, 52k hands
$5/10: 1.27bb, 22k hands
$10/20: 0.49bb, 23k hands
$15/30: 0.56bb, 14k hands

If you're wondering why bothered with $15/30 when I haven't even shown much profitability at $3/6, here's the rough sequence of limits since June:

$10/20 ---> $15/30 hot at first, then very cold ---> retreat down to $10/20, frigidly cold --> retreat all the way down to $3/6, double from 2 to 4 tables and grind away, gradually go to 6 tables (which lowers my winrate) --> $5/10

So here I am at $5/10 and based on everything else, my 1.3 bb/100 here might be temporarily too high because I'm running hot. (1.3 would be 1.5bb if not for tonight. Shows you how volatile this stat is) Or maybe I've finally learned something and I'm improving a bit.

When I first move to a new game I'm very cautious about table selection, which probably helps me get off to a hot start. But when I'm being cautious, I'm not playing nearly as much because the higher stakes make it more emotional. Then I look at how little I'm playing and see that I've got a good winrate at first, and I start forcing myself to play more, sacrificing selectivity. Eventually I get sloppy, sit down without scouting it out, and play too many tables at a time. And then I start wondering what went wrong.

A better approach to moving to a new game would be to play it a bit here and there when the games look good, but then drop down and play the game I had been comfortable with before moving up. Or better yet, make damn sure I have a solid long-term win rate in a game before jumping up. Unfortunately financial constraints force me to try to maintain a minimum level of income, and laziness constraints limit the hours I play, so I tend to want to play higher than I probably should.

I've said this same shit so many times, and I keep having the same problem. This game is hard. It seeks out my weaknesses and exploits them. You can do the income math on the numbers above. Its not impressive at all. Luckily rakeback and bonuses more than double that number, otherwise I'd be employed by now. As it is, I'm just barely getting by month to month.

I always try to make these kind of entries have a positive spin. "If I do this or that, I have reason to be optimistic... blah blah..." Should I really be optimistic?

I think it is pretty clear by now that given my skill level, expenses, and endurance, I'm going to struggle to build a bankroll and move up to higher limits. But I'm clearly a proven winner at this point, albeit a marginal winner.

But then would I probably be a marginal winner at the next level? Say I can win 1.2 bb/100 at $5/10. That's $12 per 100 hands. Could I expect to win 0.8bb/100 at $10/20? That seems like a reasonable assumption. That's $16 per 100 hands with the same skill level. Plus then I'd be playing against better competition and hopefully learning from them and improving.

Is it insane to think I'd be better off playing higher when I haven't even been able to build a bankroll to afford higher stakes? This is part of the reason I think selling my house would be a good idea. I could live someplace cheaper that lowers my monthly expenses, increasing the amount of my winnings that I can reinvest in my bankroll. Hell if I had no expenses the last 6 months, I'd have a very nice bankroll. Plus I could use some of the cash infusion from the equity gain to pad my bankroll and possibly move to higher stakes.

Another weird possibility would be having someone stake me. I've never really seriously considered such an arrangement, but it might be a good fit here if someone with money to risk buys into the idea that I'd probably be a winner at a higher level. I'm not sure if playing with someone else's money would make me feel less pressure or more, although I suspect less since I'm a selfish bastard (luckily in this case that works to the advantage of my theoretical backer).

Maybe the Vegas trip I have planned for April would be a good test-run for a staking deal. From what I hear about the $20/40 and 30/60 games out there, I probably have the skill but not the bankroll to beat them. If anyone wants to invest in a mediocre poker player, let me know. (Yes, someone asking to borrow money is a huge warning sign that they'd be a bad investment. That's why this isn't really me asking. It is more like me letting you know about a lukewarm opportunity that we could consider. I expect the offers to now come flooding in.)

Anyway, the fact that my prospects for advancing are based more on capital infusions than hard work or skill is probably an indication that I won't be a professional poker player in 5 years. I've been thinking of other things I might like to do, but most of them will take some time to get started, so I think I'll be doing this for at least another year if I can make it. I still really enjoy poker, and I imagine it will be a great hobby and supplemental income source for the rest of my life.

terrible poker post, DO NOT READ

seriously I can't imagine anyone would want to read this. fair warning. halfway down there's a list of reason to read it. i'll highlight it in red. if any of those apply to you, maybe give the rest of it a read.

I've been sitting at a table for close to two hours now, with a huge fish directly on my right. He played almost 90% of his hands, and calls til the river with any hand. He'll bet, raise or check-raise only when he has a huge hand, 3 of a kind or better. Nobody else at the table has been better than mediocre.

I have nothing to show for this. Having position on this guy I've been raising quite frequently (27% of my hands) to isolate, and only 1 other player seems aware that I'm doing this. But the fish has made enough miracle hands against me that I've only managed to break even. It is getting pretty frustrating, especially since I got beat up tonight on a couple other tables and this one should be helping make up for those..

This is just a stupid bad beat story. Nobody wants to read it but writing it has theraputic properties. I've been on a terrible run lately so I need whatever edge I can get. In fact since I started writing it, things have turned around a bit. Nope, nevermind, some idiot just called with pocket deuces til the river and spiked a set. Woohoo!

If you're still reading there's an excellent chance that one of the following applies to you:

• excessive gay love for me
• hate me cause of the bad things I said about God and want to bask in my misery like a good Christian
  
• really really bored at work
• computer is frozen and you are glued to your chair
• you just really love bad beat stories

Hooray I just flopped a set against this idiot. Uh-oh he check-raised me. Guess I'll call down and see his straight. Yup.

[note: it gets a lot worse from here]

The idiot has now lost 67 big bets at this table, I'm sitting on his right, and I've lost 4. Awesome. This is pathetic. I am terrible at this game.

Yay he just check-called to the river w/A5 on a 678T5 board against my K9. Now I'm only down 1 bet. I just flopped a set of Kings now. Turn made a flush, sweet. Yup, I lose to 8-2 suited. Fuck me. Great the next hand some guy bet-3bet the Q52 flop with T7 and turned a T to beat my A4 flush draw. Thanks to the river 4 for making me call.

Oh boy here is AA. T7 guy 3bet me, fish calls, I cap. Board KJ6Q6 I put in lots of bets Fish boy bet the river with T9. I guess I should have folded. T7 guy mucked. Dear fucking god.

I don't really know when to stop in these situations. I've lost so much money tonight, but this is such a good table. How can I leave this seat? The fish has now lost 85 BBs, and I've lost 17 here, plus another 40 on other tables. I might as well just get a job.

There's my top 2 pair KJ losing to T4, who raised preflop. Awesome.

KJ again. Isolate! Some guy cold-calls and then raises the flop! Fold! Lose!

Alright fuck it. Nothing good will come of keeping playing. Wow what a terrible night. 67 big bets lost tonight, and 160 big bets in under 48 hours, erasing everything I had won in January so far. Seriously, anyone want to hire me?

For my poker-starved readers

Here's some rare poker content.

I logged on to Absolute Poker in the wee hours of the morning to play my usual $5/10 6-max hold'em game. I was disappointed to see there were only 2 tables going on a Friday night, and that neither of them looked particularly easy. I was just about to head over to Party Poker, when I decided to check out the $10/20 action. I noticed a pair of 6-max games that looked pretty soft, so I decided to take a shot at that limit. I learned that I'm not ready to stomach the swings of this game on a regular basis, but I was able to book a nice win. Here were a few highlight hands, with very little commentary.

Hand 1: I think you're bullshit!

6 handed $10/20 hold'em.
4 folds to me in the small blind with 2♥2♣
I raise to $20 and the big blind calls.

flop ($40): 3♦ A♦ J♠

I bet $10, he raises to $20, I call.

turn ($80): A♠

I check, he bets $20, I call.

river ($120): 7♥

I check, he bets $20, I call.

He shows K♦8♦

I win $157.

Comments: Don't know my opponent, so I assume he plays like the generic 6-max player. I thought if he had an Ace, he'd have reraised preflop or waited til the turn to raise. And if he had a Jack or another pocket pair he'd have either raised preflop or just called all the way. So I figured a flush draw was his most likely hand.

Hand 2: Value bets or bluffs?

4 handed $10/20 hold'em.
1 fold, button raises to $20, small blind folds, I call in big blind with K♥9♥

flop ($45): 8♣ Q♣ 9♦

I bet $10, he raises to $20, I call.

turn ($85): 5♣

I bet $20, he raises to $40, I raise to $60, he calls.

river ($205): Q♦

I bet $20, he folds. I take down $203.

Comments: I suck at reading hands, so I just put lots of bets in and hope it works. This time it did. Opponent in this hand is very good, so I assumed he was capable of folding a decent made hand or semibluffing (betting/raising with a strong draw). My assumption must have been right, since he obviously he did one of those things.

Hand 3: Nice turn card.

6 handed $10/20 hold'em

UTG calls $10, next guy calls $10, fold, I raise to $20, small blind calls, big blind folds, 2 more callers. I have A♦J♦

flop ($90): 8♥ 7♠ 5♠

Small blind bets $10. 3 callers.

turn ($130): J♥

Small blind bets $20, big blind calls, next guy raises to $40, I raise to $60, small blind caps it to $80, big blind folds, 2 callers.

river ($390): 4♥

Small blind bets $20, 2 callers.

Small blind has J♠6♠ (an 8-high straight)
next guy has J♣9♠ (a pair of Jacks with 9-kicker)

Small blind wins $447

Comment: Small blind was the reason I was in this game. He saw the flop almost every hand, bet and raised often with no hand or on draws, and check/called with his strong hands. The guy with J9 was also loose and weird. My flop call I thought was a no-brainer, even without a backdoor flush draw. Given how bad both players are, I couldn't fold top pair top kicker on the turn, so I figured 3betting was the best play. It turned out I was a 52% favorite to win the hand, so my 3bet (and small blind's cap) was very profitable for me with 2 callers. Too bad I couldn't just claim 52% of the $390 that was in the pot before the river.