The fine line between genius and stupidity

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, and comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.

- Theodore Roosevelt*

Today I notified my boss that I intend to resign. I started with GE HFS in August of 2002, and March 25, 2005 will be my last day.

Here is every conversation I had today:

So where are you going?

I don't know.

Oh I see, you're playing it cool? Come on is it Capital Source? Merrill? CIT?

No, seriously, I don't know.

You are quitting and you don't know what you are going to do?

Yup.

You don't have another job?

Nope.

Then why are you quitting?

I know that this job isn't right for me. I can't really look around and see anything here I'd like to be doing in 5 years. I figure I should get out now while I'm young and can afford to take some risks.

Why don't you look for a new job while you work here?

I've tried that the last few months, and its just too hard for me to work all day and then drive an hour home and spend more time looking for jobs. I think as long as I have this, I'd be lazy about my job search. This way I force myself to make something happen.

Wow. Are you my hero or do I hate you?

Some of both probably.

You really are just quitting?

Yes.

Are you insane?

Pretty much.

So what do you think you want to do?

I'm not sure, but this should give me some time to figure it out. I know I'd like to find something where I can use some creativity. I know that if I want to be in the business world, ideally I'd want to run my own business, but I'd at least want to work for a much smaller company so I can really jump in and make a big difference. I have a business idea that I'd like to tinker with, and I think a lot of what I've learned at GE could really help me have an impact at a smaller company. I'll also give serious consideration to going back to school.

Oh, so which business schools are you considering?

No, not business school.

Oh, law school?

No, probably not law school either.

Umm....?

I'd think about going to get a Ph.D. An academic career has always intrigued me - teaching, research, writing. In fact I was accepted to an economics Ph.D. program at Johns Hopkins and almost went there after college. If I did that now, I know I wouldn't want to study economics. There is a newly developing field of study called Evolutionary Psychology that interests me a great deal. I've been reading a lot about it lately, and plan to investigate options for further study.

This is all a joke right?

No, sorry.

Seriously?

Yes.

You're going to CIT aren't you?

No.

What about money? How can you afford this?

Well I think I can last 3 months, maybe 6 if I live light, with no more income. I have some savings and a roommate, so I should be alright. Additionally, I've been fairly successful with online poker, and I think there's a good chance I could cover my mortgage and bills playing for maybe 20 hours per week.

So you are leaving a job at GE to go play poker professionally?

I don't look at it that way. I'm leaving my job at GE because I don't like it. In my free time I plan to play some poker, and hopefully it will help me pay the bills until I figure out something else.

Bullshit! You are quitting your job to play poker!

Maybe a little.

Is that quote at the beginning for real? Are you actually trying to glorify the fact that you are about to be an unemployed hobo?

Yeah, its pathetic.


Thats all for now. Much more to come I'm sure.

* I slightly misquoted Teddy originally. I believe this version is correct now. Source.

The Big Game

I dreamed this hand last night. I'm weird.

For some reason I was sitting in the "Big Game," playing $4,000 - $8,000 with Doyle Brunson, Chip Reese, Daniel Negreanu, Johnny Chan, and several other top pros. I remember thinking that I had no business sitting there, and that they all were thinking the same thing. It wasn't clear to me how I had the money to be playing, but there I was looking at pocket deuces in the small blind, and had to make a decision.

Doyle folded under the gun, and Reese folded behind him. Another person who may or may not have been TJ Cloutier folded as well. Daniel called the $4,000 big blind and everyone folded to Chan, who raised on the button. I was about to fold, but then I thought that something seemed off about the action so far. Daniel open-limps in middle position? What is that about? This is the BIG GAME. Who open-limps? Negreanu has been known to play some weird hands in some weird ways, and so its very possible he has a pretty weak hand. Chan the Master knows this of course, so now I think that his raise on the button could come with some pretty weak hands as well.

So I decide to put $10,000 on top of my $2,000 small blind for a preflop 3-bet. I did this to put pressure on Daniel, but they can't imagine I went through the thought process of thinking that Chan's raise might not mean very much, so they will have to put me on a big hand. Both of them call my raise, and we see a flop with $40,000 in the pot:

5 2 7 rainbow (suits unimportant).

I bet out, hoping to represent AK, but knowing that I almost certainly have the best hand. Daniel raises, and Chan folds. I consider calling the raise and check-raising the turn, but i think its too likely Daniel could have a hand like 68, so I don't want to risk him taking a free card. I 3bet and he calls. $56,000 in the pot and the turn brings a 6. I bet, he calls. River is a 5. I bet, he calls. $88,000 pot.

I turn over my full house and Negreanu goes ballistic. He shows pocket 8s, and starts tearing into me, assuring me that if I keep playing that way I'll lose all my money. Pretty funny on so many levels.

• In reality, he seems to be a genuinely nice guy who probably rarely loses his temper, certainly not over a hand like that.
  
• I flopped a set. What does he want from me?
  
• If he had raised preflop, I wouldn't have played my hand.
  
• Why would I dream this. I'm insane.
  

I calmly ask him, "do you not want me at this table?" Implying that such poor behavior was likely to drive my fishy ass away from the table.

At that point everyone else started being really nice to me and apologizing for Daniel's rude behavior. They wanted me at the table. I went on to win an absurd amount of money, but then I lost some of it when I repeatedly knocked over my ginormous chip stacks, and I probably lost the rest of it in an explosion when I accidentally flipped over my rental conversion van trying to pull into a downhill angled parking spot too quickly. End of dream.

Coulda been worse

I just had a rough losing session, but I played well, otherwise it could have been worse. All these hands are intended to highlight spots where I saved myself from more serious damage, except for the last hand which I just thought was interesting. I used a hand converter (linked by clicking on the title of this post), and alternated colors so it was more obvious which commentary went with which hand.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is SB with Kh, Qh. 5 folds, MP3 raises, 4 folds.
Final Pot: 1.66 BB

This is a pretty easy fold for me these days that I never used to make. I'm up against an Ace far too often here to make it worth playing the whole hand out of position with King high.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is SB with Jh, Qs. 2 folds, MP1 calls, 5 folds, BB checks.
Flop: (2.33 SB) 5c, 2d, 9h (2 players)BB bets, MP1 raises, BB calls.
Turn: (3.16 BB) 3s (2 players)BB checks, MP1 bets, BB calls.
River: (5.16 BB) 5s (2 players)BB checks, MP1 bets, BB calls.
Final Pot: 7.16 BB

Another example of folding 2 big cards from the blinds. This time its just not worth completing the small blind (calling $2 more). I just can't be comfortable enough when I make top pair to play this whole hand out of position against so many players.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Jc, Tc. 5 folds, MP3 raises, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, MP3 calls.
Flop: (6.33 SB) 3s, As, 6c (2 players)BB bets, MP3 calls.
Turn: (4.16 BB) 8c (2 players)BB bets, MP3 folds.
Final Pot: 5.16 BB

Pretty straightforward, folding a hand that is tempting.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is Button with Kh, Qc. 1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 4 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold.
Flop: (7 SB) 7h, 2s, Qd (3 players)SB bets, UTG+1 raises, CO folds, SB calls.
Turn: (5.50 BB) 6c (2 players)SB checks, UTG+1 bets, SB calls.
River: (7.50 BB) 7s (2 players)SB checks, UTG+1 bets, SB calls.
Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Here a tight player raised in early position, and I didn't want to take KQ against that, because his most likely hands are AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, JJ, TT. I'm in serious trouble against most of those hands, so I fold, and save myself a lot of money when it turns out the raiser had AQ.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is BB with Ac, Kc. UTG calls, 4 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, CO caps, Hero calls.
Flop: (9.33 SB) 3c, Kh, 3s (2 players)Hero bets, CO calls.
Turn: (5.66 BB) Qc (2 players)Hero checks, CO checks.
River: (5.66 BB) 5h (2 players)Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.
Final Pot: 9.66 BB
Results below: Hero has Ac Kc (two pair, kings and threes). CO has Qs Qh (full house, queens full of threes). Outcome: CO wins 9.66 BB.

Here I save myself a bet by checking the turn. When the cut-off caps preflop, his most likely holding is QQ since my AK makes it less likely he has AA, KK, or AK. On the turn I can't beat AA, KK, or QQ so I check. His check behind makes me think maybe he has JJ, so I bet the river and pay off his raise. If my opponent had bet the turn I would have called and check/called the river so I'm losing 2 bets either way. If I had bet the turn he would have certainly raised either the turn or my river bet, so I saved a bet here because of a good read.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is BB with Kd, Js. 1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 3 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls.
Flop: (8 SB) As, Ks, 6h (4 players)SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, CO calls, SB calls, Hero calls.
Turn: (6 BB) 9c (4 players)SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, CO calls, SB calls, Hero folds.
River: (9 BB) Jh (3 players)SB checks, UTG+1 bets, CO calls, SB folds.
Final Pot: 11 BB
Results below: UTG+1 has 9s Ad (two pair, aces and nines). CO has Th Kc (one pair, kings). Outcome: UTG+1 wins 11 BB.

Nothing spectacular here. All of the other opponents were VERY loose, otherwise I'd often just fold this hand preflop. I call a bet on the flop because the pot is big and nobody has defined their hand very clearly. I fold the turn because at least one of these turkeys has an Ace, maybe 2 pair, and its not worth a big bet to see the river. I'm glad I folded because I would have made the 2nd best 2 pair hand.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Qc, Qd. 3 folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds.
Flop: (7.33 SB) 3s, Kd, Jc (3 players)Hero bets, MP2 raises, CO folds, Hero calls.
Turn: (5.66 BB) Js (2 players)Hero bets, MP2 calls.
River: (7.66 BB) Ah (2 players)Hero checks, MP2 checks.
Final Pot: 7.66 BB
Results below: Hero has Qc Qd (two pair, queens and jacks). MP2 has Kc Qs (two pair, kings and jacks). Outcome: MP2 wins 7.66 BB.

I'm not sure about this hand but I think I played it well. When MP2 raises me on the flop, he probably has a King, but I think he could have a Jack or a straight draw often enough for me to keep playing. My bet out on the turn is the play I like here. If he has just a King, he can't raise my bet and probably would check behind me on most rivers if I check, so I get to showdown for only 1 more bet. If he has a Jack, he'll raise the turn usually, and then I can just fold. If he has a draw, he'll probably just call the turn. Basically it seemed to me that with that card, the only way he puts in 2 more big bets is with a hand that definitely beats mine, but he might have bet behind if I checked with a hand like AQ, QT, or TT. There's even an outside chance he might fold a weak King if he thinks I have a Jack or AK. In conclusion, folding somewhere would have been better, but since I made up my mind that I wanted a showdown with QQ, I got the cheapest possible showdown this way.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Ks, Qs. 3 folds, Hero raises, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB calls.
Flop: (6.33 SB) 9d, Th, 7c (3 players)BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BB calls.
Turn: (4.66 BB) 9s (3 players)BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BB calls.
River: (7.66 BB) Kh (3 players)BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets, BB calls, Hero calls.
Final Pot: 10.66 BB
Results below: BB has 6s 8c (straight, ten high). Hero has Ks Qs (two pair, kings and nines). MP3 has Jc Kd (two pair, kings and nines). Outcome: BB wins 10.66 BB.

I like the way I played this hand. My bets on the flop and the turn with overcards and an inside straight draw figure to win me the pot a lot of the time if the river is a blank, since often the blind is calling with just an 8 and the guy behind me is usually calling with overcards. Turned out the weirdo in the blind had the straight the whole time, but was too scared of his own shadow to ever do anything with it. The guy behind me is a moron. I'm a moron too, actually.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is BB with Jc, Ac. 3 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.
Flop: (8 SB) 9s, 9h, Kh (4 players)SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets, CO raises, SB calls, Hero folds, MP1 calls.
Turn: (7 BB) 8s (3 players)SB checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, SB calls, MP1 calls.
River: (10 BB) Ts (3 players)SB checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, SB calls, MP1 raises, CO calls, SB folds.
Final Pot: 15 BB
Results below: MP1 has Js 9d (three of a kind, nines). CO has Ah 9c (three of a kind, nines). Outcome: CO wins 15 BB.

Normally I'd probably just fold this hand preflop, but the cutoff knows that MP1 is very loose, so he'd lower his raising standards here, making me comfortable enough to see a flop out of position. I get out on the flop, but what the hell is MP1 thinking? He obviously thought his trips were the best hand the whole way. Why wait until the flush and straights come on the river to checkraise? Why not 3bet the flop or check-raise the turn?

Small Stakes No Limit fun

Since I've been struggling with limit hold'em, I figured I'd try out the online no-limit cash games. So far I like.

Game #727667997 - (blinds $0.25/$0.50) No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2005/02/20-17:23:30.3 (CST) Table "Gau (5 max)" (real money) -- Seat 2 is the button Seat 1: MSU_Poker ($44.50 in chips) Seat 2: idoljAce ($64.75 in chips) Seat 3: ADSPAR ($104.00 in chips) Seat 4: RikiRocket ($11.75 in chips) Seat 5: sckbr1 ($22.00 in chips)
ADSPAR: Post Small Blind ($0.25)
RikiRocket: Post Big Blind ($0.50)
Dealt to ADSPAR [ 6d ]
Dealt to ADSPAR [ 5c ]
sckbr1 : Call ($0.50)
MSU_Poker: Fold
idoljAce: Call ($0.50)
ADSPAR: Call ($0.25)
RikiRocket: Check
*** FLOP *** : [ 2h 6h 8c ]
ADSPAR: Check
RikiRocket: Check
sckbr1 : Check
idoljAce: Bet ($2)
ADSPAR: Raise ($6)
RikiRocket: Fold
sckbr1 : Fold
idoljAce: Call ($4)
*** TURN *** : [ 2h 6h 8c ] [ Js ]
ADSPAR: Bet ($8.50)
idoljAce: Call ($8.50)
*** RIVER *** : [ 2h 6h 8c Js ] [ 7h ]
ADSPAR: Bet ($22)
idoljAce: Timed out
idoljAce: Fold
ADSPAR: Winner -- doesn't show cards
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: $29.50 Rake: $1.50
Board: [ 2h 6h 8c Js 7h ]
MSU_Poker didn't bet (folded)
idoljAce lost $15 (folded)
ADSPAR bet $37, collected $51.50, net +$14.50 [ 6d 5c ] (a pair of sixes)
RikiRocket lost $0.50 (folded)
sckbr1 lost $0.50 (folded)

When the button bet the flop after everyone checked to him, it looked like he was trying to steal the pot. Even though he limped, so could have some low cards, this didn't seem like a flop he'd want to see a checkraise, so I raised a medium amount. I was surprised that he called. He at least thinks he has a chance to win this.

On the turn I didn't want to check and face a big bet, so I decided to bet out. I like to bet weird amounts so I bet $8.50 into a $14 pot. It took him a long time, and he finally called. I'm out of position in this hand, so this was the last bit of information I was going to get before I have to make a river decision. This is a pretty good sized pot now, so I wanted to get it right.

I took a lot of time on the river before deciding to bet $22. The river brought a possible flush, which was good for me. If he had been on a flush draw, he wouldn't have taken so long to call on the turn. His stack was about $50 at that point, so I could have folded to an all-in raise. Given his flop bet and weak call on the turn, I think he probably had a pair of 8s with a weak kicker. There was just too much on that board for him to call with 89 or something like that. I decided on $22 because the graphic of $22 looked more intimidating than $20. I assume his time-out was intentionally not deciding to call, cause he was back the next hand.


Game #727648437 - (blinds $0.25/$0.50) No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2005/02/20-17:04:09.1 (CST) Table "Gau (5 max)" (real money) -- Seat 2 is the button Seat 1: MSU_Poker ($54.25 in chips) Seat 2: idoljAce ($52.25 in chips) Seat 3: ADSPAR ($62.75 in chips) Seat 4: GamecoxGirl ($27.00 in chips) Seat 5: puddler ($37.75 in chips)
ADSPAR: Post Small Blind ($0.25)
GamecoxGirl: Post Big Blind ($0.50)
Dealt to ADSPAR [ Ah ]
Dealt to ADSPAR [ Qs ]
puddler : Call ($0.50)
MSU_Poker: Call ($0.50)
idoljAce: Call ($0.50)
ADSPAR: Raise ($4)
GamecoxGirl: Fold
puddler : Call ($3.75)
MSU_Poker: Fold
idoljAce: Fold
*** FLOP *** : [ Jd Qd 9h ]
ADSPAR: Bet ($7)
puddler : Call ($7)
*** TURN *** : [ Jd Qd 9h ] [ 3d ]
ADSPAR: Bet ($28)
puddler : Call All-in ($26.50)
*** RIVER *** : [ Jd Qd 9h 3d ] [ 7s ]
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: $75 Rake: $2
Board: [ Jd Qd 9h 3d 7s ]
MSU_Poker lost $0.50 (folded)
idoljAce lost $0.50 (folded)
ADSPAR bet $39.25, collected $76.50, net +$37.25 (showed hand) [ Ah Qs ] (a pair of queens) GamecoxGirl lost $0.50 (folded)
puddler lost $37.75 (showed hand) [ Ac Td ] (high card ace)


Another Small Blind hand. When everyone limped, it was highly likely that I was holding the best hand, but I wanted to narrow the field, or even win the small pot before the flop, hence the big raise to $4. 1 caller, and I see a flop out of position.

Good news on the flop is I have top pair with top kicker. Bad news is the board has straight and flush draws. I bet slightly less than the pot, which maybe was too little. He called with little hesitation, and the turn was an ugly diamond. The only made hands he could have that I might want to call my bet were AJ or KQ, but both of those hands would likely have raised preflop. So there was no point of milking him with a small bet. As far as my betting was concerned, he either had a made straight or flush, or was drawing to one of those. With about $24 in the pot already, and him only having $26 in front of him, if he had a made hand, all my money was going in. And if he had a draw, I wanted him to pay for it, so I went all in and hoped he'd fold.

When he called with AT, he had diamonds or straight outs, for a 34.1% chance of beating my AQ. That is 1.93 to 1. He called $26.50 with a pot of $50 in front of him, giving him 1.89 to 1, so it was basically a coinflip. River blank, WHEW!

From his perspective though, I think the call was a mistake, since if I had made a set or had a bigger diamond in my hand, his odds would have been considerably worse.

I'm much more comfortable analyzing limit hands, so if anyone has any thoughts on these no-limit hands, I'd appreciate it.

If they want to hang themselves, just give them the rope!

A couple hands from tonight that illustrate a valuable strategy for low-limit online games.

***** Hand History for Game 1587050276 *****$3/$6 Hold'em - Sunday, February 13, 19:54:55 EDT 2005Table Table 12085 (Real Money)Seat 10 is the buttonTotal number of players : 10 Seat 2: PokerTov420 ( $180 )Seat 3: ADSPAR ( $388.5 )Seat 5: Monkeydenis ( $93.5 )Seat 6: NEROS_ACESUP ( $130.25 )Seat 7: GEORDIEC ( $119.5 )Seat 8: talentedbmk ( $216 )Seat 10: Buckner333 ( $65.5 )Seat 4: thejtrain ( $144 )Seat 9: cskollmann ( $156 )Seat 1: herjn64 ( $147 )

herjn64 posts small blind [$1].PokerTov420 posts big blind [$3].
** Dealing down cards **Dealt to ADSPAR [ 9s 9h ]
ADSPAR raises [$6].thejtrain folds.Monkeydenis calls [$6].NEROS_ACESUP folds.GEORDIEC folds.cskollmann folds.Buckner333 calls [$6]..herjn64 folds..PokerTov420 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, 3d, 5c ]
ADSPAR bets [$3].Monkeydenis calls [$3].Buckner333 calls [$3].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ]
ADSPAR bets [$6].Monkeydenis folds.Buckner333 calls [$6].
** Dealing River ** [ Jc ]
ADSPAR checks.Buckner333 bets [$6].ADSPAR calls [$6].Buckner333 shows [ 6s, Ah ] a pair of threes.ADSPAR shows [ 9s, 9h ] two pairs, nines and threes.ADSPAR wins $52.5 from the main pot with two pairs, nines and threes.

After the turn action, its pretty obvious that I have the best hand and that Buck is drawing, most likely he is holding an Ace and hoping for a 4 or a pair to his Ace or kicker. There is also a backdoor flush draw he could be drawing to.

The river card isn't an obvious scare card, so I almost decided to bet. But then I realized that if he was on the draw I suspected, he probably wouldn't call the bet with no pair. However if I checked, there is a good chance he'd bluff at the pot, hoping I was betting on a draw. This also protects me from having to pay off a raise if he paired the Jack or hit the flush.

This move took into account specific information about this player. I hadn't played many hands against him, but he had played more than half of his hands since he sat down, which made it even more likely that he was the kind of player to play Ace-rag that way.

***** Hand History for Game 1587070265 *****
$3/$6 Hold'em - Sunday, February 13, 19:58:39 EDT 2005
Table Table 17509 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: ADSPAR ( $238 )
Seat 3: EkenSe ( $149.5 )
Seat 5: Leatherwings ( $153.25 )
Seat 7: massh0le ( $141.75 )
Seat 8: guydubois ( $279 )
Seat 9: Searle33 ( $152.5 )
Seat 6: wise2004 ( $140.5 )
Seat 2: johnbond ( $176 )
Seat 4: IB2BAD ( $96 )
ADSPAR posts small blind [$1]. johnbond posts big blind [$3].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ADSPAR [ Ah 9c ]
EkenSe folds. IB2BAD folds. Leatherwings folds. wise2004 folds. massh0le folds. guydubois folds. Searle33 calls [$3]. ADSPAR raises [$5]. johnbond calls [$3]. Searle33 calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3h, Qc, Qh ]
ADSPAR checks.
johnbond checks.
Searle33 bets [$3].
ADSPAR calls [$3].
johnbond folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
ADSPAR checks.
Searle33 bets [$6].
ADSPAR calls [$6].
** Dealing River ** [ 7d ]
ADSPAR checks.
Searle33 bets [$6].
ADSPAR calls [$6].
Searle33 shows [ 2d, Jd ] a pair of queens.
ADSPAR shows [ Ah, 9c ] a pair of queens.
ADSPAR wins $46 from the main pot with a pair of queens with ace kicker.

Preflop I knew that Searle was very loose, and would have probably raised with a pair or a better Ace than me. Since the big blind's random hand is probably worse than A9, it was an easy raise for me.

That flop was good for me, since there are only 2 cards that could improve my opponents' hands. I decided to check because I thought I'd get more information that way. If I bet and get called, I don't really learn much cause people call flop bets with just about anything. If I bet and get raised it leaves me more confused, cause I would think someone would wait til the big bet streets to raise a Queen. So I check, and am glad to see the big blind check. I seriously doubt that Seale has a Queen, so my call is easy, and the fold from the big blind is beautiful.

The check-call on every street makes me look weak, so he keeps betting his crappy hand that he would have folded instantly if I showed any aggression. Obviously I risk letting him hit a flukey pair to beat me, but I think it was worth it.

Happy New Year, now you suck at poker

Since the start of 2005 I've lost $3,000. I guess its actually worse than that since I have $400 of buy-in bonuses improving that number. Definitely the worst losing streak I've ever experienced, and frustrating as hell. Its taken me a week to write this part, which reminds me that I never finished writing my LA trip poker recap because I didn't want to write the part about losing $1,800 in one horrible day. I should finish that story and post all of it on here.

Anyway, here are some numbers from pokertracker, which might be a little off since I tend to forget to request hand histories from Paradise. Also I took a shot at $15/30 and lost $1,200 and kept those hands in a separate database, so I won't include those unless specifically noted.

Since 1/1/05:

$3/6 full handed
Total Hands: 5,746
VP$IP: 18.34%
W$WSF: 34.21%
W$ at SD: 54.46%
BB/100 hands: 0.16

$5/10 full handed
Total Hands: 3,557
VP$IP: 16.17%
W$WSF: 32.63%
W$ at SD: 50.22%
BB/100 hands: -4.20

$5/10 (6max)
Total Hands: 1,360
VP$IP: 27.72%
W$WSF: 35.05%
W$ at SD: 45.85%
BB/100 hands: -10.28

Aside from the huge drop in win rate, there aren't even any stats that jump out at me. I've felt like I've played fairly well - I really can't believe my play has been this drastically poorer. I do think that I have a lot to learn about shorthanded play, and its going to be a while before I try the $5/10 6max party game again.

I'd like to figure out how to use pokertracker to get to the bottom of this losing streak. Is it just bad luck? Have the games changed? Here are some more comparative stats on the full-handed $3/6 and $5/10 games:

2005 (2004)
Average pot size in big bets: 6.66 (5.93)
Winning %: 8.84 (11.02%)
Aggression Factor Total: 1.49 (1.52)
Aggression Factor Preflop: 1.35 (1.43)
Aggression Factor Flop: 1.70 (1.80)
Aggression Factor Turn: 1.64 (1.53)
Aggression Factor River: 1.34 (1.28)

I'm surprised that the pots are actually bigger, cause it has seemed to me that the games haven't been as good. It looks like I'm playing just as tight and just as aggressive as I was before, I'm just not winning hands. I'm winning 20% fewer hands. So with an average pot size of 6.66, if I won 11 pots per 100 instead of 9 I'd be getting 13BB/hour back. Assuming that there are slightly under 10 players at the table on average, I guess I should be winning a little over 10% of the hands (I'm tighter than the average player, so maybe this should be lower??). So it looks like those 3 ridiculously good months I was winning a bit more than I can expect, and lately I've been slightly unlucky.

I'm still averaging 4.47 BB/100 and about 3BB/hr overall at $3/6. Playing 4 tables for 20 hours per week for a year that would make $72,000.

For now I've decided to stick with $3/6 until I win back the $3,000 I lost mostly at higher levels, at which point I'll reevaluate. I'm going to play only 3 tables until I start winning again. I also will try a few tournaments on occasion to increase those skills.

I did this whole post without a bad beat story. I rule.

Stalling with a pair of hands from tonight.

I've been wanting to write the 2nd part of my online poker saga, but my schedule has been just too busy lately. I have basketball games on Monday and Wednesday nights, and indoor soccer games on Tuesdays. I considered writing it when I got home from work today, but decided to play instead. I put in 1 hour playing 4 full $3/6 tables on Party, and I lost $70. Blegh.

Here are some hands I thought would be interesting to write about.

***** Hand History for Game 1571336377 *****$3/$6 Hold'em - Thursday, February 10, 20:05:38 EDT 2005Table Table 13140 (Real Money)Seat 4 is the buttonTotal number of players : 10Seat 1: kidmarek ( $158 )Seat 2: Simplecall ( $134.5 )Seat 3: Blackdan13 ( $152.5 )Seat 4: babyNM ( $421.5 )Seat 5: STP21604 ( $126.5 )Seat 6: muggsy666 ( $196.5 )Seat 7: RAllen28 ( $134 )Seat 8: ADSPAR ( $245 )Seat 9: mx957 ( $146 )Seat 10: LDHpp ( $184 )

STP21604 posts small blind [$1]. muggsy666 posts big blind [$3].

** Dealing down cards **Dealt to ADSPAR [ Qc Ks ]
RAllen28 folds.ADSPAR raises [$6].mx957 folds.LDHpp folds.kidmarek folds.Simplecall folds.Blackdan13 folds.babyNM calls [$6].STP21604 folds.muggsy666 calls [$3].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 9h, 3h, Tc ].
muggsy666 checks.ADSPAR checks.babyNM checks.

** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
muggsy666 checks.ADSPAR checks.babyNM bets [$6].muggsy666 calls [$6].ADSPAR raises [$12].babyNM calls [$6].muggsy666 calls [$6].

** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
muggsy666 checks.ADSPAR bets [$6].babyNM folds.muggsy666 folds.

ADSPAR does not show cards.ADSPAR wins $58.5

Preflop the raise here is pretty standard. Limping is usually not a good play cause you get less information about hands behind you. This forces weaker hands to fold, and most hands that dominate you (AA, KK, AK, AQ) will reraise a lot of the time and warn you on a cheap street that you are in trouble. The button calling two cold rules out those hands for the most part. The big blind calling the raise means basically nothing in this game.

A lot of times a blind will bet out on a flop without face cards, so his check looks pretty weak. I consider betting with my overcards and inside straight draw, but decide to check and call or possible checkraise a bet from the button, but he checks too.

The turn 9c is a great card. When the blind checks again, it almost completely rules out the possibility of him having a T,9,3 or pocket pair, since he saw our weakness on the flop. I again consider betting, but decide that if I get called I won't know what to do if I don't improve on the river. So I check, and I love it that the button bets. There's no way he would have checked the flop with any pair, so he probably has either some weak straight or flush draw (note there are 2 flush draws now) or maybe Ace high or even a complete bluff. When the blind calls this bet, it means he is on a similar draw. I checkraise with King high and they both call.

When the 3 pairs on the river, I have an easy bet. The only remote concern is that maybe the blind had a 3 and played it weak. The button couldn't possibly call a preflop raise with a 3 so when the blind checks, I'm pretty sure my bet will take down the pot, which is does.

I like the way I played this hand and built a nice pot and didn't have to show my bluff.

$3/$6 Hold'em - Thursday, February 10, 20:07:51 EDT 2005Table Table 13140 (Real Money)Seat 6 is the buttonTotal number of players : 10 Seat 1: kidmarek ( $158 )Seat 2: Simplecall ( $131.5 )Seat 3: Blackdan13 ( $152.5 )Seat 4: babyNM ( $403.5 )Seat 5: STP21604 ( $101.5 )Seat 6: muggsy666 ( $160.5 )Seat 7: RAllen28 ( $176 )Seat 8: ADSPAR ( $279.5 )Seat 9: mx957 ( $146 )Seat 10: LDHpp ( $184 )

RAllen28 posts small blind [$1].ADSPAR posts big blind [$3].
** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to ADSPAR [ Ad 4h ]
mx957 folds.LDHpp folds.kidmarek calls [$3].Simplecall calls [$3].Blackdan13 calls [$3].babyNM folds.STP21604 calls [$3].muggsy666 folds.RAllen28 calls [$2].ADSPAR checks.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, 3d, 5h ]
RAllen28 bets [$3].ADSPAR calls [$3].kidmarek folds.Simplecall calls [$3].Blackdan13 calls [$3].STP21604 calls [$3].

** Dealing Turn ** [ 2d ]
RAllen28 bets [$6].ADSPAR calls [$6].Simplecall raises [$12].Blackdan13 folds.STP21604 folds.RAllen28 calls [$6].ADSPAR raises [$12].Simplecall calls [$6].RAllen28 calls [$6].

** Dealing River ** [ 7d ]
RAllen28 checks.ADSPAR bets [$6]. Simplecall raises [$12].RAllen28 folds.ADSPAR calls [$6].

Simplecall shows [ 4d, 5d ] a flush, seven high.ADSPAR doesn't show [ Ad, 4h ] a straight, ace to five.
Simplecall wins $108 from the main pot with a flush, seven high.

Preflop there are lots of callers, so its hard to get a read on anyone, except that a big pair is unlikely.

On the flop I think my call is pretty easy. I have the inside straight draw and an Ace that might be live since nobody raised, and the pot is big. Everyone calling is exactly what I hoped for.

The turn brings my dream card. I don't raise because I can't imagine anyone has too much of a draw to beat me, and there's a good chance someone might raise behind me with this kind of weird board. Party poker players love to raise the turn on weird boards, and that is what happens, giving me the chance to limp/reraise with what I'm sure is the best hand when nobody caps it. I put the raiser on 2 pair.

The river flush card scares me a bit, because there are tons of players who would raise that turn with the flush draw. I consider checking, but I doubt the raiser would bet 2 pair in this spot, so I bet out. He raises and I have no choice but to call with this huge pot and see his flush.

Oh well, I still like the way I played this hand. Should I have maybe checked the river? Given that he raised with a weak-ass flush he probably was the type of player to bet that river with 2 pair, so I wouldn't have missed that bet by checking and calling. Hmmm. Not sure.

I'm going to go watch Tilt on my 55" HDTV.

Way back then...

I started playing online poker in September of 2000 on Paradise Poker. I played a lot and had a lot of fun with it. Over the next few years I fell into a cycle of building up winnings over an extended amount of time, and then losing them all very quickly taking a shot at a bigger game. This happened over and over from the lowest limits on Paradise, to a particularly memorable drunken incident with the $25/50 shorthanded game on PokerRoom.

In June of 2004, I found myself in the biggest hole I had ever been in: down $1,000 for my online poker career. I decided it was time for some serious self-evaluation. I had quit online poker forever several times before, but I always came back. So I didn't think quitting was really an option. What I needed was a real strategy.

So I decided to swallow my pride and play exclusively $1/2 hold'em until I proved to myself that I was a winner at that level, and then slowly move up. Much to my surprise, I didn't find myself getting bored by the low stakes. Quite the opposite, I was energized to have a specific challenge, a long-term goal I was working towards. As I grew more comfortable with each game, I'd add more tables, and then eventually move up.

From June until the end of 2004, I won about $10,000. Here are some highlights from my Poker Tracker (www.pokertracker.com) stats.

Overall
Total Hands: 34,564
VP$IP: 23.48% (which includes shorthanded play)
W$WSF: 35%
W$ at SD: 55.3%
BB/100 hands: 4.46

In 13,601 hands of full table $3/6 hold'em, I averaged a preposterous 6.29 BB/100 hands. Assuming I got 60 hands/hr at each table and played 4 tables at a time, I was averaging about $90/hour playing $3/6. Unreal!

I had been very successful so far in my brief ventures into $5/10:

$5/10 full tables - 2,295 hands ; 3.98 BB/100 hands
$5/10 6max - 3,088 hands ; 3.1 BB / 100 hands

In November I won over $3,000 in 36 hours of play.
In December I won $2,900 in 40 hours of play.

I was completely dominating every game I sat in, like some kind of low-limit poker deity. I started doing some projections. If I maintained my $3/6 win rate and played 30 hours/week I could make more than at my job. If I kept even half that win rate at $15/30 I could easily make $150,000 a year, maybe more. I seriously entertained the idea of quitting my job and playing online poker full time for a while.

And then there was January...

to be continued