The value of a decision: to play or not to play

For various reasons, I found myself exhausted at 10pm. I had wanted to play tonight, but figured sleeping was a better decision than playing while tired. So I turned off the lights and laid down, unsure if I was taking a nap or going to bed. I knew I didn't want to be totally back on a real-world schedule, so I was leaning towards nap. But I sure as hell wasn't going to set an alarm had no reason to suspect I'd wake up before morning. I woke up around 3am and had to make a tough decision between getting up and playing for a while or rolling over to go back to sleep.

A funny thing about playing poker is that it creates a distorted picture of the value of those kinds of decisions. Theoretically, I should look at my long term average hourly earn rate, R, and how many hours I'm going to play, H, and multiply those 2 numbers to figure out the expected value of playing. H x R = EV. But variance is high in this game, so the actual result is often in a very different ballpark than the H x R projection.

So here's a common scenario. I decline an invitation to go out on a Saturday night, opting to stay in and take advantage of the juicy weekend action on Party Poker. I have a rough night at the tables: big pairs get cracked, miss all my flush draws, flop set under set 3 times. When my friends drunkenly call me at 3:31am and ask how my evening went, I know my excel sheet says I've lost $389 but I just mutter "Eh, not great... what did I miss?"

Our brains are built to make results-based associations. If I eat some berries and 30 minutes later I throw up, I associate the result of vomiting with eating the berries. I have an abstract understanding that I should be counting my imaginary EV dollars to determine how much the decision to stay in was worth, but its hard not to think that going out drinking would have been a $389 profit. I'm not going to eat those bastard berries any more.

Luckily tonight it went the other way. Instead of going back to sleep I got up and played, winning $884, far above the most generous estimates of my H x R. So what was the value of the decision?

Opportunity cost

In 13 weeks, I've made about $4,200 less playing poker than I would have earned from the job I quit. That extrapolates to a $17,000 annual paycut. The benefits aren't as good either, but what can you expect from flexible part-time work?

If you add back the 2 weeks vacation I got paid out, and consider the expenses I'm saving on commuting and lunches out in Bethesda, the financial difference looks much better. Plus I got a nice tax refund this year, so with that buffer I haven't really felt any pains in the wallet at all.

As a return on that $4,200 investment, I honestly expect my earn rate over the next 13 weeks can completely dwarf what I've done so far. My understanding of the game is growing every day, I feel like I'm playing the best poker I've ever played, and my results are starting to show it. Or maybe I'm just catching a good run of cards and in the long run I'll struggle to break even. It has been fun either way.

Its 11:20am, I guess I should go to bed.

playing online poker for a living

pros

• don't answer to anyone:
  
• this is all on me
  
• no boss
  
• no corporate interests or politics
  
• no pants
• no annoying coworkers (no, not you)
  
• obvious and immediate correlation between effort and reward
  
• no alarm clocks
  
• my own schedule
  
• sleep when i want
  
• take days off when i want
  
• life is just a game
  
• don't have to take anything seriously
• "work" is fun
• easy money
• challenge
• matching wits
• opportunity for advancement - moving up limits
• applying skills to new areas - learning new games
  

cons

• "so what do you do?"
• parents don't like it
• people generally look down on gambling
  
• why did i bother with college?
  
• sketchy healthcare coverage
• no 401k, pension
  
• no sick leave
  
• life is a just game
• hard to take pride in outplaying a drunk or a rich moron
  
• greater good?
  
• future?
• what if the games dry up?
• huge hole in my resume
  
• downswings
• pyschological challenges
• financial challenges
  

input?

Trip Recap

BULLET I suppose the trip was a modest success, financially. I had a great 3-hour session in a $10/20 game at the Taj the night I arrived, and the rest of my play basically evened out. Not a hugely profitable venture, but a nice change of pace.

BULLET After a 14 hour session on Friday I decided to head home Saturday instead of playing again. I didn't want to risk burnout after 3 long days of playing. Even though I'm sure the Saturday action was great, I'm happy with my decision.

BULLET For the first 2.5 days of play, I had very good feel for my tables. More than ever before, I really had a good idea what my opponents held and how they'd act. But towards the end of my session on Friday, a guy sat down who completely altered the dynamic of the table, and it really threw my game off. There had been one maniac at the table who played any 2 cards to the river almost every hand. He had been amazingly lucky and had a very large stack of chips in front of him. But I had been sitting next to him for several hours and was doing a pretty good job of reading him in spite of his wildness. The new guy was a preflop maniac, playing any 2 cards, often for a raise, but he played fairly well postflop. They were sitting next to each other and their antics pretty much put the whole table on tilt. With one exception, I did a miserable job of adjusting my game. Hopefully with more experience, I'll know how to adjust properly to changing conditions.

BULLET I mentioned one exception, which was a play I made shortly after the new guy (NG) joined the table. This was certainly the greatest poker play I've ever made. We'll pick up the action on the turn, where the pot was already very large. I held 98 (suits irrelevant) on the button, and after several checks the original maniac (OM) bet with the board showing K978. I knew him well enough to know that he'd try to checkraise any hand that beat me, and the pot was huge, so I raised hoping to force out the 3 people acting after me. 2 of them folded, and then NG 3-bet. He hadn't been at the table long enough to know that OM was a complete moron, and he had heard others at the table talking about how tight I was, so I knew his check/3-bet meant my hand was worse than his. At worst he had to have a set, more likely a straight, and probably JT for the nut straight. But after OM called, I had to call 1 more bet and hope for a miracle on the river. I expected any miracle would have to take the form of an 8 or 9, but the river was a J, which seemed like a horrible card for me until NG checked. He looked genuinely concerned about the Jack. Then OM bet again. At this point I it was obvious to me that NG had the best hand and I had the 2nd best hand. OM betting was an blessing, because I realized that if I raised, NG would have to assume I have at least a T for a straight and he might fold. With the pot so large I figured it was worth a shot, so I raised and looked at NG and made a sheepish "I'm sorry" face. NG agonized and finally folded. OM called my raise, and NG immediately informed OM that I had a straight. When I turned over my hand an announced 2-pair I think he might have thrown up in his mouth. "JUST TWO PAIR???! I FOLDED 5-6!!! OH MY GOD!" I quietly stacked the $425 pot.

BULLET Asian casino employees have some cool names:

secondary bullet He
secondary bullet Trung
secondary bullet Nho
secondary bullet Thang
secondary bullet Phat
secondary bullet Supa

It makes me wonder if any American name sound like cool words somewhere in Asia...

secondary bullet Ron is the Vietnamese word for "pudding"
secondary bullet Betty is a slang term for a state of inebriation in Tagalog
secondary bullet Charlie sounds kinda like "shitbird" in Korean
secondary bullet Your average Cambodian would find the name Ralph highly amusing, but couldn't really explain why. Actually that might be universal.
secondary bullet Tony sounds like the Cantonese word for "girth," especially with that Hong Kong accent.

BULLET I played a bit of the $15/30 game at the Taj, and I really felt the difference that the 2/3 blind structure makes. I've got much more experience with 1/2 or 1/3, and the $10 small blind really made the game feel a lot different than what I'm used to. I don't remember feeling that way in my occassional shots at Party's $15/30 game, so that makes me think I've come a long way since my last try at that game.

11 weeks now

I've tracked 11 weeks (Wed to Tues) now.

9 out of 11 weeks have been wins.
7 out of 11 weeks I made less than $500.
3 out of 11 weeks I made more than $1,000. 2 of those I made more than $1,500.

My worst week was a $705 loss. I followed it with a $1,507 win.

My worst day was April 3. I lost $965.
My best day was April 17. I won $560.

My worst single session was losing $727 in two hours on May 27, playing four $5/10 full tables.
My best single session was $604 in one hour on May 27, playing two $10/20 full tables.
May 27 was a long day.

My average week is 25 hours of play and $480 of income. If I did that for 50 weeks I'd make about $24,000. If I kept the same earn rate and put in 40 hours instead of 25, I'd make about $38,000. Nobody would mistake these numbers for evidence of great success.

Discipline is my biggest problem. I rarely play my "A-game" for an entire session and I don't put in very many hours. I quit too soon when I'm ahead, and I play too long when I'm behind. I let emotion cloud my judgment in big hands. I don't know a lot of odds as well as I should. I am horrible at multi-table tournaments mostly because I don't have enough patience.

I've started posting on the 2+2 forums, and it has already helped my thinking about the game, beyond what simply reading them had done for me. I've felt improvement in my game. Game selection is a growing strength. I'm getting more effective at using statistics and other information to find situations where I have a greater advantage. I've read and reread a few excellent poker books, and tried some new games.

I'm making ends meet, and enjoying this time. I don't think I'll want to be a professional poker player in 10 years (considering myself a pro now seems like a stretch), but I don't think I'll be getting a job any time soon.

Hyperbole? Probably not...

This is the most amazing hand of poker I've ever played.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Kc, Ad. MP2 posts a blind of $3.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 (poster) checks, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 5s, 3d, Qc (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 7.16 BB


I almost just called the 3-bet, but said to myself "I guess I'll cap and maybe someone will fold." And then I laughed, because the idea of someone folding was preposterous. And then 2 people folded.

Has anyone ever seen a preflop limp(check)-3bet-fold??

And then MP1 folds the flop getting over 14 to 1 on the call. Astonishing.